Sea ice predictions for September 2015.
A comment about Wadham’s out-of-the-ballpark prediction: In school, when my forecasts were that far afield of the rest, I recall my professors would grill me intensely. Their admonishments included: 1) Never forecast a record, 2) Explain in detail what you see that prompts your result to be so different from the others, and 3) Next class, you’ll be first up to explain why you were wrong.
So, to Professor Wadham I restate the sage admonishments above. Unfortunately, I have no authority to hold him accountable for his “extra-ordinary” forecast or to give a hot-wash or post-mordem on his failure.
By Paul Homewood
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june
As ever, at this time of year, the Sea Ice Prediction Network have put together a collection of predictions of the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic this autumn. This year, they have had 32 contributors.
The first thing which stands out is the vast range of predictions, particularly the modelled ones. It does not say much for the reliability of climate models if they do not have a clue of what will happen in two months time.
The UK Met Office are forecasting 4.4 million sq km, based on their models. Readers may recall that last year they predicted 4.1 million sq km, well short of the outturn of 5.3 million sq km.
We shall await with bated breath if they get any closer this year!
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