Long Term Tropical Cyclone Trends

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University has sent me a copy of his latest paper, A General Linear Model for Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity, published last June:

ABSTRACT

The ACE index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described.

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His conclusions are:

In a general linear model for global mean annual Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in six basins and seven decades from 1945 to 2014 we find some evidence of a rising trend in tropical cyclone…

View original post 374 more words

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