UAH & ENSO Updates For March 2016


By Paul Homewood


According to UAH, lower troposphere anomalies fell back sharply in March, down 0.10C. RSS also show a similar picture, down 0.13C.

With El Nino conditions continuing to dissipate during March, we may well have now seen the temperature peak in February, as I have been saying for a while.


It is worth comparing the current situation with 1997/98.

First, ENSO values:


We see that, although the 1997/98 El Nino peaked, (so far), higher than this one, we have actually had El Nino conditions for much longer in 2015/16. Indeed, there has been a mild El Nino since Spring 2014. This is one reason why temperatures have so far peaked slightly higher this year.

The second thing to note is that El Nino recovered in strength to make a second peak in Spring 1998. I would expect the MEI values for March to be much…

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