Huge forecast uncertainty over possible Florida tropical storm #Invest99L #Hermine

Watts Up With That?

A clear demonstration of model uncertainty in predicting ahead 7 days is evident in the difference in output for two highly used forecast models, one says we’ll have a signicant tropical storm (Hermine if it reaches that level) the other says it will dissipate. Which one is right? Who knows at this point.

Tropical Weather Expert Dr. Ryan Maue writes on Twitter:

Two 7-day weather models … European (ECMWF) vs. American (GFS) Major Gulf hurricane vs. nothing.

And wow, is he right, what a difference. Here they are, side by side:

ECMWF-GFS-Aug25

He adds:

11 years ago same place we were watching Katrina and didn’t know where it was going. Same quandary today

invest99L-Aug25

NHC Atlantic ops notes:

USAF finds system still lacking close circulation & become significantly less organized during past 24 hours.

invest99L-NHC

We live in interesting times.

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