CFSR Adjustment

Climate Concerns

As discussed in the previous post, Weather Model Reanalysis Comparisons, the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) shows an apparent shift in global temperature anomaly estimates apparently associated with the switch from Version 1 to Version 2 (CFSV2) that occurred in early 2011.  The version upgrade shift is apparent when the CFSR estimates are compared with the older and unmodified  NCEP reanalysis performed in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR R1), as can be seen in Figure 1 (click on any of the graph images below to see a larger copy).

Figure 1. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for 1979-2015. Figure 1. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR R1 and NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 monthly global temperature anomaly estimates for 1979-2015.

A linear regression of the NCEP CFSR/CFSV2 versus the NCEP/NCAR R1 for the period of discrepancy that runs from 1979 through April 2010 shows a good correlation with R-square of 0.83, as seen…

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