When will ‘The Pause’ in global temperature return?

Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Another year, another failure of global warming to occur at even half the rate originally predicted by IPCC in 1990.

CO2 emissions have increased at a rate somewhat above the high-end prediction made in IPCC’s First Assessment Report. In 2013 our sins of emission totaled 10.8 billion tonnes of carbon; in 2014 the official estimate, in the annual paper published by le Quéré et al., was 10.9 billion tonnes:


It is debatable whether the true rate of emissions growth is anything like as small as 0.1 billion tonnes of carbon per year, given that China and now India are bringing coal-fired power stations onstream at a record rate. But the official storyline is that emissions growth has all but stopped. Nevertheless, emissions remain a very long way above any of IPCC’s CO2-stabilization scenarios.

On the business-as-usual Scenario A, IPCC (1990)…

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