Satellite Records and Slopes Since 1998 are Not Statistically Significant. (Now Includes November and December Data)

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts

WoodForTrees.org – Paul Clark – Click the pic to view at source

As can be seen from the above graphic, the slope is positive from January 1998 to December 2016, however with the error bars, we cannot be 95% certain that warming has in fact taken place since January 1998. The high and low slope lines reflect the margin of error at the 95% confidence limits. If my math is correct, there is about a 30% chance that cooling has taken place since 1998 and about a 70% chance that warming has taken place. The 95% confidence limits for both UAH6.0beta5 and RSS are very similar. Here are the relevant numbers from Nick Stokes’ Trendviever site for both UAH and RSS:

For RSS:
Temperature Anomaly trend
Jan 1998 to Dec 2016
Rate: 0.450°C/Century;
CI from -0.750 to 1.649;
t-statistic 0.735;

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