Guest essay by David Archibald
Our divination of solar parameters is aimed to elucidating two things – the length of Solar Cycle 24 and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25.
Figure 1: F10.7 Flux from 2014
The F10.7 flux was exhibiting high volatility up to the beginning of 2015 after which it entered a disciplined decline in activity to late 2016. Now it is not far above the activity floor of 64 with three years of the solar cycle to go.
Figure 2: Solar Cycle 24 progression relative to Solar Cycles 19 to 23
For the last couple of years Solar Cycle 24 has been bumping along the lower bound of activity for the cycles for which we have F10.7 data, but with much lower volatility. From here it looks like Solar Cycle 24 will have a long, flat tail until minimum.
Figure 3: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 to 2017
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