Guest analysis by Sheldon Walker
In this article I will present convincing evidence that the recent slowdown was statistically significant (at the 99% confidence level).
I will describe the method that I used in detail, so that other people can duplicate my results.
By definition, the warming rate during a slowdown must be less than the warming rate at some other time. But what “other time” should be used. In theory, if the warming rate dropped from high to average, then that would be a slowdown. That is not the definition that I am going to use. My definition of a slowdown is when the warming rate decreases to below the average warming rate. But there is an important second condition. It is only considered to be a slowdown when the warming rate is statistically significantly less than the average warming rate, at the 99% confidence level. This means…
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