Wet or Dry California Winter?

Sierra Foothill Commentary

The California Weather Blog has some thoughts.

Summing it up: what does all this mean for California?

The NMME ensemble is suggesting modest El Nino conditions this winter in the tropical Pacific Ocean. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)
In short: ENSO certainly isn’t everything when it comes to California precipitation, but on the other hand particularly strong El Niño and La Niña events are quite likely to be consequential. Current seasonal projections for 2019 suggest a high likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. In keeping with the above discussion, that unfortunately doesn’t offer much information regarding whether California is likely to experience a wet or dry winter (and this is largely reflected in seasonal precipitation forecasts, which are essentially suggesting equal odds of a wet or dry winter). It is worth noting that relatively warm conditions are quite likely to occur this winter throughout much of the American West…

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