Hot NH Summers & El Ninos

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

There have been many reports about the hot summer just passed in much of the Northern Hemisphere. And, inevitably, it has been blamed on climate change.

However, analysis of the UAH satellite data shows a different story:

image

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

What we see is this summer has been similar to other recent summers such as 1998, 2010 and 2016.

The significance of this is that these three years all came at the tail end of large El Ninos:

ts.gif

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

El Ninos leave a lot of heat behind in the atmosphere, which can take a long time to dissipate. However, both the 1998 and 2010 events were quickly followed by strong La Ninas, during which temperatures returned to normal.

This however did not happen after the 2015/16 El Nino. There was only a very weak La Nina, itself bracketed to two short lived weak El Ninos. It is this fact…

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