Reblogged from Watts Up With That:
Prediction of the Strength and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 25 Reveal Decadal-scale Space Environmental Conditions
Prantika Bhowmik1 and Dibyendu Nandy1,2,*
1Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, West Bengal, India 2Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Mohanpur 741246, West Bengal, India *Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
The Sun’s activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic ﬂux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations deﬁne space climate and force the Earth’s atmosphere. However, predicting the solar cycle is challenging. Current understanding indicates a short window for prediction best achieved at previous cycle minima. Utilizing magnetic ﬁeld evolution models for the Sun’s surface and interior we perform the ﬁrst century-scale, data-driven simulations of solar activity and present a scheme for extending the prediction window to a decade. Our ensemble forecast indicates cycle 25 would be similar or slightly stronger than the current cycle and peak around 2024. Sunspot cycle 25 may thus reverse the substantial weakening trend in solar activity which has led to speculation of an imminent Maunder-like grand minimum and cooling global climate. Our simulations demonstrate ﬂuctuation in the tilt angle distribution of sunspots is the dominant mechanism responsible for solar cycle variability.