Southern Hemisphere Part 2

Reblogged from Musings from the Chiefio:

[HiFast note:  Really long post by E.M..  His BLUF/Conclusion]: 

In Conclusion

When you go through the other stations, you find very similar things. In the far south, most start late in history, have sporadic data drop outs, and various issues with data quality and availability.

Realize you can not fix this. The history is done and set. We can’t go back and open the station earlier, nor send someone to gather the 2010 data nor fill in August 2015.

This is the foundation of the whole Global Warming narrative. Then a huge layer of statistical manipulation is layered over it to attempt to hide the data quality and quantity issues. Kriging, interpolation, homogenizing, “the reference station method” of making up a number based on a temperature up to 1200 km away. None of this can fix the real problems with the underlying data. They can only burry it under a layer of bafflegab.

How bad is it?

These are the months of data, that is not a missing data flag, for each wmo number in the Antarctic region (country starting with a 7). Note that the very first one has 10 years of data, that’s all. 120 months. THE longest is 1356 or about 113 years, then the next is 1212 months, or 101 years. Long for a human lifetime, nearly nothing in geological time scales and climate cycles. Most of the rest are around one human lifetime or less.

This is a continuation of the investigation started in this posting:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/01/30/the-southern-ocean-hemisphere-problem/

I had started to make it a comment, but it got a bit big for that.

Here’s a Southern Ocean view of the world:

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica

From the Wiki at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean
referencing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Ocean#/media/File:Antarctica-Region.png

From the “Oh Boy! New Toy!” department:

I get to use my shiny new MySQL database to look at some of the things related to this problem. For starters, let’s ask just what stations are south of -45 degrees. That is, what are the reporting stations in the south 1/2 of the Southern Hemisphere. First up, how many are there?

mysql> SELECT COUNT(country) FROM inventory WHERE latitude < -45 ;
+----------------+
| COUNT(country) |
+----------------+
|             66 |
+----------------+
1 row in set (0.02 sec)

If you drop it down to the bottom 1/3 of the hemisphere, things start to look bleak:

mysql> SELECT COUNT(country) FROM inventory WHERE latitude < -60;
+----------------+
| COUNT(country) |
+----------------+
|             39 |
+----------------+
1 row in set (0.02 sec)

All of 39 stations. I happen to know from prior investigations that many of them have very short records. Antarctic stations that were only staffed for a few years or decades. The GHCN ship locations have spotty reporting and are up north.

But let’s move back out to the 1/4 of the globe, 1/2 of the hemisphere, point again.

That’s a total of 66 over the entire length of the record. For about 1/4 of the planet. But then you must also allow for the fact that many of these are short lived or have sporadic reporting. The SHIPS records especially, are only reported when a ship was in the area and bothered to take a temperature. Each ship with a different instrument of unknown calibration.

The Stations

So what are these stations? Let’s report them, then inspect the “country” field to see where they are. Note that the 1 in the first digit is Africa, so the first 4 in the report are “Africa”, but 2 of them are islands. That’s right, all of 4 stations cover that large arc of area around Africa in the bottom 1/4 of the globe. (roughly as marked by the green line of the Southern Ocean boundary on the image above). So the data are already very limited even before we start asking “How long and how full is the record?” for each station.

Note too that nothing shows for the expanse of the Pacific where it reaches the Southern Ocean. All those “South Pacific Islands” are up where it is warm and nearer the tropics.

We then get a decent block of Patagonia. 13 Argentine stations. 6 from Chile, though at least one of them is really in Antarctica, and a couple of islands owned by the UK. After that, it’s a list of Antarctic stations with variable staffing durations. Remember that it was very difficult to keep an Antarctic base fully staffed and operational over the winter in the early 1900s. New Zealand shows up with 4. UPDATE (for Billinoz): Yes, and even one from Australia on McQuarie Island.

mysql> SELECT country, name, latitude FROM inventory WHERE latitude <-45;
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
| country | name                           | latitude |
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
| 141     | MARION ISLAND                  | -46.8800 |
| 143     | CROZET                         | -46.4300 |
| 143     | PORT-AUX-FRAN                  | -49.3500 |
| 147     | SIGNY ISLAND                   | -60.7200 |
| 301     | PATAGONES, ARGENTINA           | -46.8000 |
| 301     | COMODORO RIVA                  | -45.7800 |
| 301     | SARMIENTO ARGENTINA            | -45.6000 |
| 301     | GOBERNADOR GR                  | -48.7800 |
| 301     | PUERTO DESEAD                  | -47.7300 |
| 301     | LAGO ARGENTIN                  | -50.3300 |
| 301     | SAN JULIAN AE                  | -49.3200 |
| 301     | SANTA CRUZ AE                  | -50.0200 |
| 301     | RIO GALLEGOS                   | -51.6200 |
| 301     | RIO GRANDE B.                  | -53.8000 |
| 301     | ANO NUEVO                      | -54.7000 |
| 301     | USHUAIA AERO                   | -54.8000 |
| 301     | BASE ESPERANZ                  | -63.4000 |
| 304     | PUERTO AYSEN                   | -45.4000 |
| 304     | BALMACEDA                      | -45.9200 |
| 304     | ISLOTES EVANG                  | -52.4000 |
| 304     | PUNTA ARENAS                   | -53.0000 |
| 304     | CENTRO MET.AN                  | -62.4200 |
| 304     | BASE ARTURO P                  | -62.5000 |
| 316     | STANLEY /UK/                   | -51.7000 |
| 316     | CAPE PEMBROKE,FALKLAND ISL     | -51.7000 |
| 317     | GRYTVIKEN,                     | -54.2700 |
| 501     | MACQUARIE ISL                  | -54.4800 |
| 507     | INVERCARGILL                   | -46.7000 |
| 507     | DUNEDIN AERODROME              | -45.9300 |
| 507     | DUNEDIN MUSSELBURGH NEW ZE     | -45.9000 |
| 507     | CAMPBELL ISLA                  | -52.5500 |
| 700     | PETREL                         | -63.5000 |
| 700     | S.A.N.A.E. ST                  | -70.3000 |
| 700     | NEUMAYER                       | -70.6700 |
| 700     | AMUNDSEN-SCOT                  | -90.0000 |
| 700     | HALLEY                         | -75.5000 |
| 700     | BASE BELGRANO                  | -77.8700 |
| 700     | BELGRANO                       | -77.9000 |
| 700     | BELLINGSHAUSE                  | -62.2000 |
| 700     | DEST. NAVAL DECEPCION SOUT     | -63.0000 |
| 700     | DECEPTION IS.    S ATLANTI     | -63.0000 |
| 700     | ADMIRALITY BAY                 | -62.1000 |
| 700     | CMS"VICE.DO.M                  | -64.2300 |
| 700     | TENIENTE MATIENZO (ANT SOUTH A | -64.9700 |
| 700     | BASE ALMIRANTE BROWN           | -64.8800 |
| 700     | DEST. NAVAL MELCHIOR           | -64.3000 |
| 700     | BERNADO O'HIGGINS              | -63.3200 |
| 700     | PALMER STATIO                  | -64.7700 |
| 700     | ROTHERA POINT                  | -67.5700 |
| 700     | FARADAY                        | -65.2500 |
| 700     | BASE SAN MART                  | -68.1300 |
| 700     | BYRD STATION                   | -80.0200 |
| 700     | NOVOLAZAREVSK                  | -70.7700 |
| 700     | SYOWA                          | -69.0000 |
| 700     | MOLODEZNAJA                    | -67.6700 |
| 700     | MIZUHO                         | -70.7000 |
| 700     | MAWSON                         | -67.6000 |
| 700     | DAVIS                          | -68.5800 |
| 700     | MIRNYJ                         | -66.5500 |
| 700     | VOSTOK                         | -78.4500 |
| 700     | LENINGRADSKAYA                 | -69.5000 |
| 700     | CASEY                          | -66.2800 |
| 700     | DUMONT D'URVI                  | -66.6700 |
| 700     | MCMURDO                        | -77.8500 |
| 700     | SCOTT BASE                     | -77.8500 |
| 701     | BASE ORCADAS                   | -60.7500 |
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
66 rows in set (0.02 sec)

When you make it the bottom 1/3 of the hemisphere it is basically Antarctica. One island, a couple of “Bases” assigned to Chile and Argentina, but in Antarctica, and then other stations in the deep freeze.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Signy_Island

Signy Island is a small subantarctic island in the South Orkney Islands of Antarctica. It was named by the Norwegian whaler Petter Sørlle after his wife Signy Therese.

mysql> SELECT country, name, latitude FROM inventory WHERE latitude <-60;
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
| country | name                           | latitude |
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
| 147     | SIGNY ISLAND                   | -60.7200 |
| 301     | BASE ESPERANZ                  | -63.4000 |
| 304     | CENTRO MET.AN                  | -62.4200 |
| 304     | BASE ARTURO P                  | -62.5000 |
| 700     | PETREL                         | -63.5000 |
| 700     | S.A.N.A.E. ST                  | -70.3000 |
| 700     | NEUMAYER                       | -70.6700 |
| 700     | AMUNDSEN-SCOT                  | -90.0000 |
| 700     | HALLEY                         | -75.5000 |
| 700     | BASE BELGRANO                  | -77.8700 |
| 700     | BELGRANO                       | -77.9000 |
| 700     | BELLINGSHAUSE                  | -62.2000 |
| 700     | DEST. NAVAL DECEPCION SOUT     | -63.0000 |
| 700     | DECEPTION IS.    S ATLANTI     | -63.0000 |
| 700     | ADMIRALITY BAY                 | -62.1000 |
| 700     | CMS"VICE.DO.M                  | -64.2300 |
| 700     | TENIENTE MATIENZO (ANT SOUTH A | -64.9700 |
| 700     | BASE ALMIRANTE BROWN           | -64.8800 |
| 700     | DEST. NAVAL MELCHIOR           | -64.3000 |
| 700     | BERNADO O'HIGGINS              | -63.3200 |
| 700     | PALMER STATIO                  | -64.7700 |
| 700     | ROTHERA POINT                  | -67.5700 |
| 700     | FARADAY                        | -65.2500 |
| 700     | BASE SAN MART                  | -68.1300 |
| 700     | BYRD STATION                   | -80.0200 |
| 700     | NOVOLAZAREVSK                  | -70.7700 |
| 700     | SYOWA                          | -69.0000 |
| 700     | MOLODEZNAJA                    | -67.6700 |
| 700     | MIZUHO                         | -70.7000 |
| 700     | MAWSON                         | -67.6000 |
| 700     | DAVIS                          | -68.5800 |
| 700     | MIRNYJ                         | -66.5500 |
| 700     | VOSTOK                         | -78.4500 |
| 700     | LENINGRADSKAYA                 | -69.5000 |
| 700     | CASEY                          | -66.2800 |
| 700     | DUMONT D'URVI                  | -66.6700 |
| 700     | MCMURDO                        | -77.8500 |
| 700     | SCOTT BASE                     | -77.8500 |
| 701     | BASE ORCADAS                   | -60.7500 |
+---------+--------------------------------+----------+
39 rows in set (0.10 sec)

Just as a sidebar, let’s look at that Chilean base:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_Arturo_Prat_Base

Captain Arturo Prat Base is a Chilean Antarctic research station located at Iquique Cove, Greenwich Island in the South Shetland Islands, Antarctica.

Opened February 6, 1947 by the First Chilean Antarctic Expedition, it is the oldest Chilean Antarctic station.
Until March 1, 2006, it was a base of the Chilean Navy, on which date it was handed over to the regional government of Magallanes and Antártica Chilena Region. Until February 2004, it had been a permanent base. Afterwards, it had served as a summer base for ionospheric and meteorologic research. There have been plans to reopen the station for permanent occupation starting March 2008. The base is named for Captain Arturo Prat, a Chilean naval officer.

Opened in 1947. So for this base, all history starts after World War II. Now for a lot of folks that will seem like ancient history; but in terms of climate it is just yesterday. That’s a pretty short record, especially when you consider there are known cyclical changes of about 60 years and 1500 years. You will not be sampling a steady state flat condition, but a small part of a cycle.

Then we note that it is the oldest Chilean base. Any other of their bases will have even less data.

Then we note that it has been Summer Only since 2004 “Until February 2004, it had been a permanent base. Afterwards, it had served as a summer base for ionospheric and meteorologic research.”

If it is starting to sound “spotty”, you are right.

Here’s an excerpt of a report finding the WMO station number:

mysql> SELECT name, country, wmo FROM inventory WHERE country=304;
+------------------------------+---------+-------+
| name                         | country | wmo   |
+------------------------------+---------+-------+
| ARICA                        | 304     | 85406 |
[...]
| BASE ARTURO P                | 304     | 89057 |
+------------------------------+---------+-------+
31 rows in set (0.02 sec)

So there is a total of 31 stations in Chile, and this one is 89057 (or 30489057 with country code attached). But just what data made it from the station into the GHCN? Does it start in 1947? Um, no. This is GHCN v3.3, the latest before the new revision to GHCN v4 (that I could not download due to the government shutdown when building the database). It starts this station in 1966. I’ve chopped out some of the report below, to highlight the missing data flagged by -99.99 in some years. Note that this is not all the data that is missing. There is a pattern where the Dec – Feb data seem most prone to being missed. Changing station staff in Summer? I’ve not flagged all of them.

mysql> SELECT year, month, deg_c from temps_data where wmo=89057;
+------+-------+--------+
| year | month | deg_c  |
+------+-------+--------+
| 1966 |  JAN  |   1.80 |
| 1966 |  FEB  |   0.40 |
| 1966 |  MAR  |  -0.20 |
| 1966 |  APR  |  -1.40 |
| 1966 |  MAY  |  -6.80 |
| 1966 | JUNE  |  -7.70 |
| 1966 | JULY  | -12.60 |
| 1966 |  AUG  |  -5.70 |
| 1966 | SEPT  |  -5.50 |
| 1966 |  OCT  |  -3.00 |
| 1966 |  NOV  |  -1.70 |
| 1966 |  DEC  |   0.30 |
[...]
| 1980 |  JAN  |   1.10 |
| 1980 |  FEB  |   1.40 |
| 1980 |  MAR  |  -0.80 |
| 1980 |  APR  |  -4.60 |
| 1980 |  MAY  |  -3.40 |
| 1980 | JUNE  |  -6.50 |
| 1980 | JULY  | -12.70 |
| 1980 |  AUG  | -11.10 |
| 1980 | SEPT  |  -8.30 |
| 1980 |  OCT  |  -3.30 |
| 1980 |  NOV  |  -2.90 |
| 1980 |  DEC  |   0.20 |
| 1981 |  JAN  |   0.60 |
| 1981 |  FEB  |   1.40 |
| 1981 |  MAR  |  -0.30 |
| 1981 |  APR  | -99.99 |
| 1981 |  MAY  |  -3.40 |
| 1981 | JUNE  |  -4.30 |
| 1981 | JULY  |  -4.60 |
| 1981 |  AUG  |  -9.70 |
| 1981 | SEPT  |  -5.10 |
| 1981 |  OCT  |  -4.60 |
| 1981 |  NOV  |  -1.50 |
| 1981 |  DEC  |   0.70 |
| 1982 |  JAN  | -99.99 |
[...]
| 1987 |  JAN  |   0.60 |
| 1987 |  FEB  |   1.20 |
| 1987 |  MAR  |   0.10 |
| 1987 |  APR  |  -3.00 |
| 1987 |  MAY  |  -5.10 |
| 1987 | JUNE  |  -7.30 |
| 1987 | JULY  | -13.60 |
| 1987 |  AUG  |  -5.70 |
| 1987 | SEPT  |  -7.10 |
| 1987 |  OCT  |  -2.40 |
| 1987 |  NOV  |  -1.30 |
| 1987 |  DEC  |   1.20 |
| 1988 |  JAN  |   1.40 |
| 1988 |  FEB  | -99.99 |
| 1988 |  MAR  |   0.10 |
| 1988 |  APR  |  -1.00 |
| 1988 |  MAY  | -99.99 |
| 1988 | JUNE  | -99.99 |
| 1988 | JULY  | -99.99 |
| 1988 |  AUG  | -99.99 |
| 1988 | SEPT  | -99.99 |
| 1988 |  OCT  | -99.99 |
| 1988 |  NOV  | -99.99 |
| 1988 |  DEC  | -99.99 |
| 1989 |  JAN  | -99.99 |
[...]
| 1991 |  JAN  |   1.80 |
| 1991 |  FEB  |   0.60 |
| 1991 |  MAR  |  -0.70 |
| 1991 |  APR  |  -2.50 |
| 1991 |  MAY  | -99.99 |
| 1991 | JUNE  |  -8.80 |
| 1991 | JULY  |  -7.00 |
| 1991 |  AUG  |  -7.40 |
| 1991 | SEPT  | -99.99 |
| 1991 |  OCT  |  -3.80 |
| 1991 |  NOV  |  -1.20 |
| 1991 |  DEC  | -99.99 |
| 1992 |  JAN  | -99.99 |
| 1992 |  FEB  | -99.99 |
| 1992 |  MAR  | -99.99 |
| 1992 |  APR  |  -1.40 |
| 1992 |  MAY  |  -7.50 |
| 1992 | JUNE  |  -8.40 |
| 1992 | JULY  |  -7.70 |
| 1992 |  AUG  |  -5.50 |
| 1992 | SEPT  |  -2.90 |
| 1992 |  OCT  |  -3.10 |
| 1992 |  NOV  |  -0.30 |
| 1992 |  DEC  |   1.80 |
[...]
| 1994 |  JAN  |   1.80 |
| 1994 |  FEB  |   1.40 |
| 1994 |  MAR  |   1.20 |
| 1994 |  APR  |  -1.20 |
| 1994 |  MAY  |  -3.50 |
| 1994 | JUNE  | -99.99 |
| 1994 | JULY  | -10.30 |
| 1994 |  AUG  |  -4.10 |
| 1994 | SEPT  |  -4.10 |
| 1994 |  OCT  |  -5.60 |
| 1994 |  NOV  |   0.20 |
| 1994 |  DEC  |   0.00 |
[...]
| 1996 |  JAN  |   1.80 |
| 1996 |  FEB  |   2.50 |
| 1996 |  MAR  |   1.40 |
| 1996 |  APR  |  -1.20 |
| 1996 |  MAY  |  -2.20 |
| 1996 | JUNE  |  -4.90 |
| 1996 | JULY  |  -3.70 |
| 1996 |  AUG  |  -4.30 |
| 1996 | SEPT  |  -2.70 |
| 1996 |  OCT  |  -1.80 |
| 1996 |  NOV  |  -0.50 |
| 1996 |  DEC  |   0.80 |
| 1997 |  JAN  |   2.40 |
| 1997 |  FEB  |   1.80 |
| 1997 |  MAR  |   1.40 |
| 1997 |  APR  |  -1.60 |
| 1997 |  MAY  |  -1.70 |
| 1997 | JUNE  |  -4.60 |
| 1997 | JULY  |  -6.60 |
| 1997 |  AUG  |  -5.90 |
| 1997 | SEPT  |  -7.00 |
| 1997 |  OCT  |  -3.10 |
| 1997 |  NOV  |  -2.10 |
| 1997 |  DEC  |   0.70 |
| 1998 |  JAN  |   2.40 |
| 1998 |  FEB  |   3.00 |
| 1998 |  MAR  |   0.00 |
| 1998 |  APR  |   1.10 |
| 1998 |  MAY  |  -1.20 |
| 1998 | JUNE  |  -1.40 |
| 1998 | JULY  |  -5.50 |
| 1998 |  AUG  |  -7.00 |
| 1998 | SEPT  |  -8.10 |
| 1998 |  OCT  | -99.99 |
| 1998 |  NOV  |  -0.40 |
| 1998 |  DEC  |   0.50 |
| 1999 |  JAN  |   2.30 |
| 1999 |  FEB  | -99.99 |
| 1999 |  MAR  |   1.60 |
| 1999 |  APR  |   1.30 |
| 1999 |  MAY  |  -0.60 |
| 1999 | JUNE  |  -3.70 |
| 1999 | JULY  |  -3.60 |
| 1999 |  AUG  |  -5.50 |
| 1999 | SEPT  |  -5.60 |
| 1999 |  OCT  |  -1.60 |
| 1999 |  NOV  |   0.10 |
| 1999 |  DEC  |   1.50 |
| 2000 |  JAN  |   2.10 |
| 2000 |  FEB  | -99.99 |
| 2000 |  MAR  |   1.30 |
| 2000 |  APR  |   0.20 |
| 2000 |  MAY  |  -1.50 |
| 2000 | JUNE  |  -2.10 |
| 2000 | JULY  |  -3.00 |
| 2000 |  AUG  |  -6.00 |
| 2000 | SEPT  |  -5.80 |
| 2000 |  OCT  |  -1.70 |
| 2000 |  NOV  |  -0.80 |
| 2000 |  DEC  | -99.99 |
|[...]
| 2003 |  JAN  |   1.90 |
| 2003 |  FEB  |   1.90 |
| 2003 |  MAR  |   0.10 |
| 2003 |  APR  |  -0.50 |
| 2003 |  MAY  |  -2.70 |
| 2003 | JUNE  |  -7.20 |
| 2003 | JULY  |  -5.50 |
| 2003 |  AUG  |  -2.10 |
| 2003 | SEPT  |  -3.20 |
| 2003 |  OCT  |  -2.50 |
| 2003 |  NOV  | -99.99 |
| 2003 |  DEC  |  -1.10 |
| 2010 |  JAN  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  FEB  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  MAR  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  APR  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  MAY  | -99.99 |
| 2010 | JUNE  | -99.99 |
| 2010 | JULY  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  AUG  | -99.99 |
| 2010 | SEPT  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  OCT  | -99.99 |
| 2010 |  NOV  |   0.40 |
| 2010 |  DEC  |  -0.10 |
| 2011 |  JAN  |   1.20 |
| 2011 |  FEB  |   2.40 |
| 2011 |  MAR  | -99.99 |
| 2011 |  APR  |  -4.20 |
| 2011 |  MAY  |  -2.90 |
| 2011 | JUNE  |  -6.70 |
| 2011 | JULY  |  -9.20 |
| 2011 |  AUG  |  -8.00 |
| 2011 | SEPT  |  -6.50 |
| 2011 |  OCT  |  -1.70 |
| 2011 |  NOV  | -99.99 |
| 2011 |  DEC  | -99.99 |
| 2012 |  JAN  |   1.90 |
| 2012 |  FEB  |   1.40 |
| 2012 |  MAR  |   1.00 |
| 2012 |  APR  |  -4.00 |
| 2012 |  MAY  |  -2.50 |
| 2012 | JUNE  |  -6.40 |
| 2012 | JULY  |  -4.70 |
| 2012 |  AUG  |  -4.40 |
| 2012 | SEPT  |  -5.20 |
| 2012 |  OCT  |  -3.10 |
| 2012 |  NOV  |  -1.50 |
| 2012 |  DEC  |   0.00 |
[...]
| 2015 |  JAN  |   1.10 |
| 2015 |  FEB  |   1.50 |
| 2015 |  MAR  |   0.80 |
| 2015 |  APR  |   0.00 |
| 2015 |  MAY  |  -2.30 |
| 2015 | JUNE  |  -6.90 |
| 2015 | JULY  |  -7.90 |
| 2015 |  AUG  | -99.99 |
| 2015 | SEPT  | -99.99 |
| 2015 |  OCT  | -99.99 |
| 2015 |  NOV  | -99.99 |
| 2015 |  DEC  | -99.99 |
+------+-------+--------+
528 rows in set (10.82 sec)

mysql> 

Then it ends in 2015 with another string of missing data. South America has had a few financial / political eruptions over the years, and has had trouble funding everything their government, and people, want funded. I’d also note the non-trivial problem that most Antarctic bases have grown in size and in fuel burned over the decades. It doesn’t take much to warm the area around a small town when you are worried about 1/10 C variation.

Now here’s the $Billion Dollar Question: That 1940s data has July and August temps in the -11 to -12 C range. More recent records show -7 -8 or -9 range. Is that 3 to 4 C (roughly) drop due to a normal cycle of the Polar See-saw? Due to growth of the station and siting issues? Due to a natural 60 years cycle? Due to a change in the Southern Ocean currents under lunar tidal changes (known to have major cycles over an 1800 year span and with 60 year cycles as well)? Due to changes in volcanic activity on the peninsula? (When it is known that the volcanoes are now a bit active under the ice). Did it in fact have a cold spike and reach the prior history in 2010 or 2015, but that was when the data has a dropout?

How do you attribute causality with that short and sparse a data set?

In Conclusion

When you go through the other stations, you find very similar things. In the far south, most start late in history, have sporadic data drop outs, and various issues with data quality and availability.

Realize you can not fix this. The history is done and set. We can’t go back and open the station earlier, nor send someone to gather the 2010 data nor fill in August 2015.

This is the foundation of the whole Global Warming narrative. Then a huge layer of statistical manipulation is layered over it to attempt to hide the data quality and quantity issues. Kriging, interpolation, homogenizing, “the reference station method” of making up a number based on a temperature up to 1200 km away. None of this can fix the real problems with the underlying data. They can only burry it under a layer of bafflegab.

How bad is it?

These are the months of data, that is not a missing data flag, for each wmo number in the Antarctic region (country starting with a 7). Note that the very first one has 10 years of data, that’s all. 120 months. THE longest is 1356 or about 113 years, then the next is 1212 months, or 101 years. Long for a human lifetime, nearly nothing in geological time scales and climate cycles. Most of the rest are around one human lifetime or less.

mysql> SELECT COUNT(deg_c), wmo FROM temps_data WHERE region=7 AND deg_c>-100 GROUP BY wmo;
+--------------+-------+
| COUNT(deg_c) | wmo   |
+--------------+-------+
|          120 | 88963 |
|         1356 | 88968 |
|          444 | 89001 |
|          420 | 89002 |
|          708 | 89009 |
|          720 | 89022 |
|          732 | 89034 |
|          576 | 89050 |
|          588 | 89053 |
|         1212 | 89055 |
|          312 | 89059 |
|          324 | 89061 |
|          732 | 89062 |
|          840 | 89063 |
|          456 | 89066 |
|          312 | 89125 |
|          660 | 89512 |
|          684 | 89532 |
|          468 | 89542 |
|          180 | 89544 |
|          744 | 89564 |
|          660 | 89571 |
|          720 | 89592 |
|          912 | 89606 |
|          708 | 89611 |
|          732 | 89642 |
|          528 | 89664 |
|          372 | 89665 |
+--------------+-------+
28 rows in set (10.54 sec)

That’s pretty slim pickings in the Southern Hemisphere for any actual data. Now remember that a few times I’ve talked about “SHIP data”. There are some data collected from places in the ocean where, were a ship passing by, it could take a measurement. So how much SHIP data is in the Southern Hemisphere?

mysql> SELECT name, country, latitude FROM inventory WHERE region=8;
+--------+---------+----------+
| name   | country | latitude |
+--------+---------+----------+
| SHIP A | 800     |  62.0000 |
| SHIP B | 800     |  56.5000 |
| SHIP C | 800     |  52.8000 |
| SHIP D | 800     |  44.0000 |
| SHIP E | 800     |  35.0000 |
| SHIP I | 800     |  59.0000 |
| SHIP J | 800     |  52.5000 |
| SHIP K | 800     |  45.0000 |
| SHIP L | 800     |  57.0000 |
| SHIP M | 800     |  66.0000 |
| SHIP N | 800     |  30.0000 |
| SHIP P | 800     |  50.0000 |
| SHIP R | 800     |  47.0000 |
| SHIP V | 800     |  34.0000 |
+--------+---------+----------+
14 rows in set (0.03 sec)

Oh… that would be “none”. All that water is the Big Empty, per GHCN version 3.

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