Changing temperature anomaly baselines

Reblogged from Clive Best:

Posted on February 27, 2019 by Clive Best

I wanted to check whether the choice of baseline can affect the calculation of  global temperature anomalies from station data. Each temperature index (GISS, Berkeley, CRU) uses different normalisation periods for calculating weather station temperature anomalies. I was surprised to discover that this choice makes no difference whatsoever to the results.

I used the new GHCN V4 which contains 27315 weather stations, and calculated the global average temperature anomaly relative to 5 different 30-year baseline periods using Spherical triangulation. Selecting different baselines restricts the analysis to those stations with sufficient data falling within those periods. Here are the results.

Compare-baselines-768x643 1

All the trends are very similar despite a factor of up to 8 difference in the number of stations used.  We can compare them all directly by offsetting each onto the same 1961-1990 baseline. To do this I simply scale each one by the offset difference between 1961-1990 (shown in ‘calc’ brackets).

Compare-baselines-768x643 2

The results are surprisingly similar.  This means that the choice of baseline period is essentially arbitrary and does not affect the end result.

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