CG2 and Ex Post Picking

Climate Audit

Jul 31, 2019: Noticed this as an unpublished draft from 2014. Not sure why I didn’t publish at the time. Neukom, lead author of PAGES (2019) was coauthor of Gergis’ papers.

One of the longest-standing Climate Audit controversies has been about the bias introduced into reconstructions that use ex post screening/correlation.   In today’s post, I’ll report on a little noticed* Climategate-2 email  in which a member of the paleoclimatology guild (though then junior) reported to other members of the guild that he had carried out simulations to test “the phenomenon that Macintyre has been going on about”, finding that the results from his simulations from white noise “clearly show a ‘hockey-stick’ trend”, a result that he described as “certainly worrying”.  (*: WUWT article here h/t Brandon).

A more senior member of the guild dismissed the results out of hand:  “Controversy about which bull caused mess not relevent.”  Members of the…

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