Study: Arctic ocean ‘methane bomb’ really isn’t anything to worry about

Watts Up With That?

From the UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER comes this study that backs up a study that we reported on just a few days ago about methane clathrates on the ocean floor. The so-called Arctic “methane bomb” that some off the rails climate scientists have been worrying about just isn’t going to happen.

Release of ancient methane due to changing climate kept in check by ocean waters

Ocean sediments are a massive storehouse for the potent greenhouse gas methane.

Trapped in ocean sediments near continents lie ancient reservoirs of methane called methane hydrates. These ice-like water and methane structures encapsulate so much methane that many researchers view them as both a potential energy resource and an agent for environmental change. In response to warming ocean waters, hydrates can degrade, releasing the methane gas. Scientists have warned that release of even part of the giant reservoir could significantly exacerbate ongoing climate change.

However, methane…

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Natural Climate Cycles: Fresh Insights

Science Matters

Multiple aspects of nature cycle and interact over various time scales, frustrating attempts to discern human influence upon the climate. To demonstrate the challenge, consider one simple physical example: The compound pendulum shown in operation below:

Recently a comment (H/T tom0mason) alerted me to the science demonstrated by the double compound pendulum, that is, a second pendulum attached to the ball of the first one. It consists entirely of two simple, well understood objects functioning as pendulums, only now each is influenced by the behavior of the other.

Lo and behold, you observe that a double pendulum in motion produces chaotic behavior. In a remarkable achievement, complex equations have been developed that can and do predict the positions of the two balls over time, so in fact the movements are not truly chaotic, but with considerable effort can be determined. The equations and descriptions are at Wikipedia Double Pendulum.

But…

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Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: study

Tallbloke's Talkshop


But the researchers are still hooked on the unlikely idea that trace gases alone can ‘determine’ variations in global temperatures, despite lack of correlation in the data and poor results from climate model ‘projections’.

Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions, reports Phys.org.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

“Our study all but rules out very low and very high climate sensitivities,” said lead author Peter Cox, a professor at the University of Exeter.

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What Is The Earth’s Ideal Temperature?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Nuttercelli is at it again in the Guardian:

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In an interview with Reuters last week, Trump’s EPA administrator Scott Pruitt said,

Pruitt’s goal is to sow doubt on behalf of his oil industry allies in order to weaken and delay climate policies. Shifting the ‘debate’ toward ‘the ideal surface temperature’ achieves that goal by creating the perception that we don’t know what temperature we should aim for. It’s in line with his boss’ recent ignorant tweet suggesting that “Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming.”

I spoke with a number of climate scientists who agreed that to minimize the risks associated with rapid human-caused climate change, from a practical standpoint the ‘ideal temperature’ is as close to the current one as possible.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/17/scott-pruitt-insincerely-asked-whats-earths-ideal-temperature-scientists-answer

I think we can take it then that Nuttercelli and his band of “climate scientists”, who include…

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Were Aerosol Spray Cans Really a Threat?

Big Picture News, Informed Analysis


SPOTLIGHT: There’s a long history of scientists spreading premature alarm in the media.

BIG PICTURE: Bernie Lewin’s exhaustively researched book, Searching for the Catastrophe Signal, describes how the US campaign against spray can CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) began.

In September 1974, a Harvard atmospheric scientist told a New York Times journalist that hairspray and other aerosol products were damaging the Earth’s ozone layer. The front page news story explained that ozone protects the planet “from lethal ultraviolet radiation.”

Readers were only advised in paragraphs 34 and 35 that no one had yet taken “a hard look at the Harvard calculations” since the research was still in the process of being submitted to a scientific journal.

By the time it was officially published four months later, its robustness was beside the point. An anti-CFC movement was already in full swing. Television newscaster Walter Cronkite and others had hyped the findings and a frenzy…

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Frigid cold is why we need dependable energy

Watts Up With That?

Foreword by Paul Driessen

The United States has more coal than any other nation. With modern coal-fired power plants, it can be used to generate very inexpensive electricity, with virtually no significant pollution: about the only thing that comes out of the stacks today are water vapor and carbon dioxide, the miracle molecule that helps plants grow and makes life on Earth possible. Even though coal-based electricity has plummeted from 52% of all US electricity in 2008 to 30% by the time President Obama left office, it still helps to keep the lights on and keep people warm in all but a few states.

But as Tom Harris points out in this thought-provoking article, even under President Trump, the USA is a long way from taking full advantage of its mighty coal reserves – and the restrictions on coal use bring virtually no environmental or climate benefits. That’s because the…

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How’s Your CCIQ?

Science Matters

H/T David Wojick and CFACT

Doctors for Disaster Preparedness are concerned to be ready for real disasters and not be distracted by irrational fears like global warming/climate change. They have provided a useful resource for people to test and deepen their knowledge of an issue distorted for many people by loads of misinformation and exaggerations.

From David Wojick:

A new lesson set called the Climate Change IQ (CCIQ) provides a good skeptical critique of ten top alarmist claims. The format is succinct and non-technical. Each alarmist claim is posed as a question, followed by a short skeptical answer, which is highlighted with a single telling graphic.

Then there is a link to a somewhat longer answer, which in turn includes links to a few online sources of more information. Each lesson is also available in a printable PDF version, suitable for classroom use. This compact format is potentially…

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Fubar Science from @UCDavis – Coping with climate stress in Antarctica

Watts Up With That?

Coping with climate stress in Antarctica

Some polar fish can cope with warming or ocean acidification, but not both together

Some Antarctic fish living in the planet’s coldest waters are able to cope with the stress of rising carbon dioxide levels the ocean. They can even tolerate slightly warmer waters. But they can’t deal with both stressors at the same time, according to a study from the University of California, Davis.

The study, published recently in the journal Global Change Biology, of emerald rockcod is the first to show that Antarctic fishes may make tradeoffs in their physiology and behavior to cope with ocean acidification and warming waters.

(The research is described in a web feature, “The Last Stop,” at the UC Davis Science & Climate website.)

“In dealing with climate stress, these fish are really bad multi-taskers,” said senior author Anne Todgham, an associate professor with the UC…

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Weather anomalies accelerate the melting of sea ice

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Arctic Ocean
The researchers believe Saharan air reaching the Arctic was a rare but significant factor in an unusual warming event two years ago.

In the winter of 2015/16, something happened that had never before been seen on this scale: at the end of December, temperatures rose above zero degrees Celsius for several days in parts of the Arctic, reports Phys.org. Temperatures of up to eight degrees were registered north of Svalbard.

Temperatures this high have not been recorded in the winter half of the year since the beginning of systematic measurements at the end of the 1970s. As a result of this unusual warmth, the sea ice began to melt.

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Temperature Adjustments In Alabama

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/ncdc-cooling-the-past-again/

I came across an old post of mine from June 2012, which casts some light on how much the US temperature record has been adjusted by NOAA.

The graph plots November temperatures in Alabama. Like all of this old data, this graph is no longer available on NOAA’s website.

As I noted at the time, November temperatures in 1934 were 57.0F, and compared with 55.5F in 2011.

If we fast forward to the current version, we find that November 1934 is shown as 55.8F, and November 2011 as 55.3F. In net terms, relative to 2011, the 1934 temperatures have been reduced by 1.0F.

multigraph

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/1/0/tavg/1/11/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=100&firsttrendyear=1895&lasttrendyear=2013

As I also reported in a later post in 2014, NOAA offered a toolkit that graphed the differences between the old and new versions.

Below is a screenprint of the annual data for Alabama, which I posted at the time, and it…

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