February Land and Sea Mixed Cooling

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With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for January.   Previously I have done posts on their reading of ocean air temps as a prelude to updated records from HADSST3. This month I will add a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually…

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Hurricanes & climate change: recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes

BLUF:  6.6   Conclusions

Convincing detection and attribution of individual extreme weather events such as hurricanes requires:

  • a very long time series of high-quality observations of the extreme event
  • an understanding of the variability of extreme weather events associated with multi-decadal ocean oscillations, which requires at least a century of observations
  • climate models that accurately simulate both natural internal variability on timescales of years to centuries and the extreme weather events

Of the four hurricanes considered here, only the rainfall in Hurricane Harvey passes the detection test, given that it is an event unprecedented in the historical record for a continental U.S. landfalling hurricane. Arguments attributing the high levels of rainfall to near record ocean heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico are physically plausible. The extent to which the high value of ocean heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico can be attributed to manmade global warming is debated. Owing to the large interannual and decadal variability in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g. ENSO), it is not clear that a dominant contribution from manmade warming can be identified against the background internal climate variability (Chapter 4).

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

An assessment of whether any of the impacts of recent  U.S. landfalling hurricanes were exacerbated by global warming.

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Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW); A Tangled Web Strangling Its Creators and Proponents

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

Two recent events triggered the idea for this article. On the surface, they appear unconnected, but that is an indirect result of the original goal and methods of global warming science. We learned from Australian Dr, Jennifer Marohasy of another manipulation of the temperature record in an article titled Data mangling: BoM’s Changes to Darwin’s Climate History are Not Logical.” The second involved the claim of final, conclusive evidence of Anthropogenic Global Warming ((AGW). The original article appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change. Because it is in this journal raises flags for me. The publishers of the journal Nature created the journal. That journal published as much as it could to promote the deceptive science used for the untested AGW hypothesis. However, they were limited by the rules and procedures required for academic research and publications. This isn’t a problem if the issue of global warming was purely about science, but it never was. It was a political use of science for a political agenda from the start. The original article came from a group led by Ben Santer, a person with a long history of involvement in the AGW deception.

 

An article titled Evidence that humans are responsible for global warming hits ‘gold standard’ certainty level” provides insight but includes Santer’s comment that “The narrative out there that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” he told Reuters. “We do.” It is a continuation of his work to promote the deception. He based his comment on the idea that we know the cause of climate change because of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They only looked at human causes, and it is impossible to determine that, if you don’t know and understand natural climate change and its causes. If we did know and understand then forecasts would always be correct. If we do know and understand then Santer and all the other researchers and millions of dollars are no longer necessary.

So why does Santer make such a claim? For the same reason, they took every action in the AGW deception, to promote a stampede created by the urgency to adopt the political agenda. It is classic the sky is falling” alarmism. Santer’s work follows on the recent ‘emergency’ report of the IPCC presented at COP 24 in Poland that we have 12 years left.

One of the earliest examples of this production of inaccurate science to amplify urgency was about the residency time of CO2 in the atmosphere. In response to the claims for urgent action of the IPCC, several researchers pointed out that the levels and increase in levels were insufficient to warrant urgent action. In other words, don’t rush to judgement. The IPCC response was to claim that even if production stopped the problem would persist for decades because of CO2’s 100-year residency time. A graph produced by Lawrence Solomon appeared showing that the actual time was 4 to 6 years (Figure 1).

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Figure 1

This pattern of underscoring urgency permeates the entire history of the AGW deception.

Lord Walter Scott said, “What a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” Another great author expanded on that idea but from a different perspective. Mark Twain said, “If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember.” In a strange way, they contradict or at least explain how the deception spread, persisted, and achieved their damaging goal. The web becomes so tangled and the connection between tangles so complicated that people never see what is happening. This is particularly true if the deception is about an arcane topic unfamiliar to a majority of the people.

All these observations apply to the biggest deception in history, the claim that human production of CO2 is causing global warming. The objective is unknown to most people even today, and that is a measure of the success. The real objective was to prove overpopulation combined with industrial development was exhausting resources at an unsustainable rate. As Maurice Strong explained the problem for the planet are the industrialized nations and isn’t it our responsibility to get rid of them. The hypothesis this generated was that CO2, the byproduct of burning fossil fuel, was causing global warming and destroying the Earth. They had to protect the charge against CO2 at all cost, and that is where the tangled web begins.

At the start, the IPCC and agencies supporting them had control over the two important variables, the temperature, and the CO2. Phil Jones expressed the degree of control over temperature in response to Warwick Hughes’ request for which stations he used and how they were adjusted in his graph, He received the following reply on 21, February 2005.

“We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.”

Control over the global temperature data continued until the first satellite data appeared in 1978. Despite the limitations, it provided more complete coverage; the claim is 97 to 98%. This compares with the approximately 15% coverage of the surface data.

Regardless of the coverage, the surface data had to approximate the satellite data as Figure 2 shows.

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Figure 2

This only prevented changing the most recent 41 years of the record, but it didn’t prevent altering the historical record. Dr. Marohasy’s article is just one more illustration of the pattern. Tony Heller produced the most complete analysis of the adjustments made. Those making the changes claim, as they have done again in Marohasy’s challenge, that they are necessary to correct for instrument errors, site and situation changes such as for an Urban Heat Island Effect (UHIE). The problem is that the changes are always in one direction, namely, lowering the historic levels. This alters the gradient of the temperature change by increasing the amount and rate of warming. One of the first examples of such adjustments occurred with the Auckland, New Zealand record (Figure 3). Notice the overlap in the most recent decades.

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Figure 3

The IPCC took control of the CO2 record from the start, and it continues. They use the Mauna Loa record and data from other sites using similar instruments and techniques as the basis for their claims. Charles Keeling, one of the earliest proponents of AGW, was recognized and hired by Roger Revelle at the Scripps institute. Yes, that is the same Revelle Al Gore glorifies in his movie An Inconvenient Truth. Keeling established a CO2 monitoring station that is the standard for the IPCC. The problem is Mauna Loa is an oceanic crust volcano, that is the lava is less viscous and more gaseous than continental crust volcanoes like Mt Etna. A documentary titled Future Frontiers: Mission Galapagos reminded me of studies done at Mt Etna years ago that showed high levels of CO2 emerging from the ground for hundreds of kilometers around the crater. The documentary is the usual, people are destroying the planet sensationalist BBC rubbish. However, at one point they dive in the waters around the tip of a massive volcanic island and are amazed to see CO2 visibly bubbling up all across the ocean floor.

Charles Keeling patented his instruments and techniques. His son Ralph continues the work at the Scripps Institute and is a member of the IPCC. His most recent appearance in the media involved an alarmist paper with a major error – an overestimate of 60%. Figure 4 shows him with the master of PR for the IPCC narrative, Naomi Oreskes.

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Figure 4

Figure 5 shows the current Mauna Loa plot of CO2 levels. It shows a steady increase from 1958 with the supposed seasonal variation.

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Figure 5

This increase is steady over 41 years, which is remarkable when you look at the longer record. For example, the Antarctic ice core record (Figure 6) shows remarkable variability.

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Figure 6

The ice core record is made up of data from bubbles that take a minimum of 70 years to be enclosed. Then a 70-year smoothing average is applied. The combination removes most of the variability, and that eliminates any chance of understanding and predetermines the outcome.

Figure 7 shows the degree of smoothing. It represents a comparison of 2000 years of CO2 measures using two different measuring techniques. You can see the difference in variability but also in total atmospheric levels of approximately 260 ppm to 320 ppm.

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Figure 7

However, we also have a more recent record that shows similar differences in variation and totals (Figure 8). It allows you to see the IPCC smoothed the record to control the CO2 record. The dotted line shows the Antarctic ice core record and how Mauna Loa was created to continue the smooth but inaccurate record. Zbigniew Jaworowski, an atmospheric chemist and ice core specialist, explained what was wrong with CO2 measures from ice cores. He set it all out in an article titled, “CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time.” Of course, they attacked him, yet the UN thought enough of his qualifications and abilities to appoint him head of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor disaster investigation.

Superimposed is the graph of over 90,000 actual atmospheric measures of CO2 that began in 1812. Publication of the level of oxygen in the atmosphere triggered collection of the CO2 data. Science wanted to identify the percentage of all the gases in the atmosphere. They were not interested in global warming or any other function of those gases – they just wanted to obtain accurate data, something the IPCC never did.

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Figure 8

People knew about these records decades ago. The record was introduced into the scientific community by railway engineer Guy Callendar in coordination with familiar names as Ernst-Georg Beck noted,

“Modern greenhouse hypothesis is based on the work of G.S. Callendar and C.D. Keeling, following S. Arrhenius, as latterly popularized by the IPCC.”

He deliberately selected a unique set of the data to claim the average level was 270 ppm and changed the slope of the curve from an increase to a decrease (Figure 9). Jaworowski circled the data he selected, but I added the trend lines for all the data (red) and Callendar’s selection (blue).

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Figure 9

Tom Wigley, Director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and one of the fathers of AGW, introduced the record to the climate community in a 1983 Climatic Change article titled, “The Pre-Industrial Carbon Dioxide Level.” He also claimed the record showed a pre-industrial CO2 level of 270 ppm. Look at the data!

The IPCC and its proponents established through cherry-picking and manipulation the pre-industrial CO2 level. They continue control of the atmospheric level through control of the Mauna Loa record, and they control the data on annual human production. Here is their explanation.

The IPCC has set up the Task Force on Inventories (TFI) to run the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme (NGGIP) to produce this methodological advice. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed to use the IPCC Guidelines in reporting to the convention.

How does the IPCC produce its inventory Guidelines? Utilising IPCC procedures, nominated experts from around the world draft the reports that are then extensively reviewed twice before approval by the IPCC. This process ensures that the widest possible range of views are incorporated into the documents.

In other words, they make the final decision about which data they would use for their reports and as input to their computer models.

This all worked for a long time, however, as with all deceptions even the most tangled web unravels. They continue to increase the atmospheric level of CO2 and then confirm it to the world by controlling the Mauna Loa annual level. However, they lost control of the recent temperature record with the advent of satellite data. They couldn’t lower the CO2 data because it would expose their entire scam, they are on a treadmill of perpetuating whatever is left of their deception and manipulation. All that was left included artificial lowering of the historical record, changing the name from global warming to climate change, and producing increasingly threatening narratives like the 12 years left and Santer’s certainty of doom.


NOTE: In my opinion, I do not give the work of  Ernst-Georg Beck in Figure 8 any credence for accuracy, because the chemical procedure is prone to error and the locations of the data measurements (mostly in cities at ground level) have highly variable CO2 levels. Note how highly variable the data is. – Anthony

No, Increasing CO2 isn’t going to trigger a hot world without clouds

From DrRoySpencer.com:

March 1st, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

I’ve received many more requests about the new disappearing-clouds study than the “gold standard proof of anthropogenic warming” study I addressed here, both of which appeared in Nature journals over the last several days.

The widespread interest is partly because of the way the study is dramatized in the media. For example, check out this headline, “A World Without Clouds“, and the study’s forecast of 12 deg. C of global warming.

The disappearing clouds study is based upon the modelling of marine stratocumulus clouds, whose existence substantially cools the Earth. These extensive but shallow cloud decks cover the subtropical ocean regions over the eastern ocean basins where upwelling cold water creates a strong boundary layer inversion.

Marine-stratocumulus-Oregon_AMO_2006272
Marine stratocumulus clouds off the U.S. West Coast, which form in a water-chilled shallow layer of boundary layer air capped by warmer air aloft (NASA/GSFC).

In other words, the cold water causes a thin marine boundary layer of chilled air up to a kilometer deep, than is capped by warmer air aloft. The resulting inversion layer (the boundary between cool air below and warm air aloft) inhibits convective mixing, and so water evaporated from the ocean accumulates in the boundary layer and clouds then develop at the base of the inversion. There are complex infrared radiative processes which also help maintain the cloud layer.

The new modeling study describes how these cloud layers could dissipate if atmospheric CO2 concentrations get too high, thus causing a positive feedback loop on warming and greatly increasing future global temperatures, even beyond what the IPCC has predicted from global climate models. The marine stratocumulus cloud response to warming is not a new issue, as modelers have been debating for decades whether these clouds would increase or decrease with warming, thus either reducing or amplifying the small amount of direct radiative warming from increasing CO2.

The new study uses a very high resolution model that “grows” the marine stratocumulus clouds. The IPCC’s climate models, in contrast, have much lower resolution and must parameterize the existence of the clouds based upon larger-scale model variables. These high resolution models have been around for many years, but this study tries to specifically address how increasing CO2 in the whole atmosphere changes this thin, but important, cloud layer.

The high resolution simulations are stunning in their realism, covering a domain of 4.8 x 4.8 km: https://d2r55xnwy6nx47.cloudfront.net/uploads/2019/02/CloudGraph_Vimeo.mp4

CloudGraph_Vimeo

The main conclusion of the study is that when model CO2 concentrations reach 1200 ppm or so (which would take as little as another 100 years or so assuming worst-case energy use and population growth projections like RCP8.5), a substantial dissipation of these clouds occurs causing substantial additional global warming, with up to 12 deg. C of total global warming.

Shortcomings in the Study: The Large-Scale Ocean and Atmospheric Environment

All studies like this require assumptions. In my view, the problem is not with the high-resolution model of the clouds itself. Instead, it’s the assumed state of the large-scale environment in which the clouds are assumed to be embedded.

Most importantly, it should be remembered that these clouds exist where cold water is upwelling from the deep ocean, where it has resided for centuries to millennia after initially being chilled to near-freezing in polar regions, and flowing in from higher latitudes. This cold water is continually feeding the stratocumulus zones, helping to maintain the strong temperature inversion at the top of the chilled marine boundary layer. Instead, their model has 1 meter thick slab ocean that rapidly responds to only whats going on with atmospheric greenhouse gases within the tiny (5 km) model domain. Such a shallow ocean layer would be ok (as they claim) IF the ocean portion of the model was a closed system… the shallow ocean only increases how rapidly the model responds… not its final equilibrium state. But given the continuous influx of cold water into these stratocumulus regions from below and from high latitudes in nature, it is far from a closed system.

Second, the atmospheric environment in which the high-res cloud model is embedded is assumed to have similar characteristics to what climate models produce. This includes substantial increases in free-tropospheric water vapor, keeping constant relative humidity throughout the troposphere. In climate models, the enhanced infrared effects of this absolute increase in water vapor leads to a tropical “hot spot”, which observations, so far, fail to show. This is a second reason the study’s results are exaggerated. Part of the disappearing cloud effect in their model is from increased downwelling radiation from the free troposphere as CO2 increases and positive water vapor feedback in the global climate models increases downwelling IR even more. This reduces the rate of infrared cooling by the cloud tops, which is one process that normally maintains them. The model clouds then disappear, causing more sunlight to flood in and warm the isolated shallow slab ocean. But if the free troposphere above the cloud does not produce nearly as large an effect from increasing water vapor, the clouds will not show such a dramatic effect.

The bottom line is that marine stratocumulus clouds exist because of the strong temperature inversion maintained by cold water from upwelling and transport from high latitudes. That chilled boundary layer air bumps up against warm free-tropospheric air (warmed, in turn, by subsidence forced by moist air ascent in precipitation systems possibly thousands of miles away). That inversion will likely be well-maintained in a warming world, thus maintaining the cloud deck, and not causing catastrophic global warming.


[Hifast Note:  Excellent comment thread here:  DrRoySpencer.com]

The seas get cooler around Iceland-Some charts and anecdotes

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Reader Steinar J writes:

Included is a Word document describing sea temperatures in the vicinity of Iceland, sea ice extent and an excerpt,
(translated from Swedish) from an eyewitness report from the Swedish icebreaker tour to The North Pole in 2018.

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Fig. 1
In this area of the ocean the temperature drops (cut from Google Earth.
The green dots show where it is active Argo measuring buoys ).

clip_image004Argo buoys, over 3,200 of them, are scattered around in the oceans of the world. These buoys measures the water temperature at various depths down to 2000 meters depth. In the depicted sea area in fig. 1, the temperature has dropped since measurements began at the beginning of the 2000s. This is in the middle of the Gulf Stream. Here is the temperature development in the upper 100 meters:

Fig. 2

The temperature trend is not very different if one examines the water further down:

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Fig. 3
Evolution of ocean temperature in the range 100 m to 1900 m below the surface.

This is consistent with observations that show that the sea ice slowly has begun to increase in extent and volume again. The cyclic variation of temperature in the north has apparently given us the beginning of an expected temperature drop.

Yearly minimum sea ice extent in millions of km2, from year 2000 thru 2018

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Fig. 4
Sea ice trends in the north, comparing the minimum ice extent from year to year since 2000

In 2018, Sweden sent a scientific expedition going to the North Pole by using the icebreaker Oden. This they finally managed, but here is a note from the boat, called “Veckobrev från Isbrytaren Oden 2018-08-10” (“Weekly letter from the icebreaker Oden 2018-08-10”):

“… .. It is important for this research expedition that we come as far north as possible so as to measure on the masses of air that originate from the pack ice to the greatest possible extent. Other research projects are constantly ongoing such as ice cores, CTD, weather balloons. The ice that is about 90-100% concentrated, is thick and compact, this in my highest non-scientific perspective as a navigator, but I have been up here before and not seen these conditions since 2005. Life in the ship floats on without problems. The animal life is sparse.

Navigation

As I mentioned in the text above, it has been very compact ice, I have not seen similar conditions since 2005. 2016, which was the last time when Oden was so far north it went in about 5 days from the ice edge to this latitude with average speed 6 knots. It has taken considerably longer this time and with an average speed of about 3 knots. We are about 45 Nm (83km) from the North Pole at the time of writing. When the ice offers this resistance you will be happy as an ice navigator, as it has constantly been gloomy news about “extremely small ice distribution in the Arctic” “Ice-free in the North Polar Sea” “polar bears drown” “shipping companies planning routes across the North Pole”. Yes, it is no polar bears that drown here. It may even be that it can be difficult to bring down the paws in the water. We are too high up on the globe for there to be good satellite images to take advantage of, so what is in our help now is the helicopter. We do not drive blindly and if we run out of our helicopter recon, we would rather stop if the weather does not allow flight. The fact that you stop then depends on whether we actually do not see if we are going into an area with extremely difficult ice that can make it difficult for us to continue, turn or even get stuck. I had not hesitated during previous expeditions to continue without a helicopter recon, but in the prevailing ice conditions it is unwise. In fact, we use Odin’s all resources and systems to carry us out. The weather has been what you can expect from the summer in the Arctic, around 1-0 ° C in the air and about -1 ° C in the water, the visibility varies between poor to really bad and on some occasions really nice. We must take care to fly the road as soon as possible, so we always know where we are going. “

Additional comments should be unnecessary.

Water Temperature-graphs are produced using the ” Global Argo Marine Atlas “.

Sea ice trends are taken from NSIDC

Link to the letter from Oden.

http://www.sjofartsverket.se/pages/111200/Veckobrev%20fr%C3%A5n%20Isbrytaren%20Oden%202018-08-09.pdf

Hurricanes & climate change: landfalls

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Part III: is there any signal of global warming in landfalling hurricanes and their impacts?

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The Physical Flaws of the Global Warming Theory and Deep Ocean Circulation Changes as the Primary Climate Driver

by William M. Gray

Professor Emeritus Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University        Fort Collins, CO 80523

Prepared for the Heartland Institute’s 7th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-7) Chicago, IL during May 21-23, 2012

Paper also available at (http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf)

THE MAIN MISCONCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL WARMERS IS TO ASSUME THAT ALL THE MANY LARGE ENERGY TERMS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM REMAIN CONSTANT OVER LONG PERIODS AND THAT THE ONLY CHANGES THAT MATTER FOR CLIMATE ALTERATION ARE THE VERY SMALL MAGNITUDE VARIATIONS OF HUMAN-INDUCED CO2.

HOW COULD THE WARMERS BE SO NAÏVE AS TO BELIEVE THAT CHANGES IN CO2 ARE THE DOMINANT CLIMATE FORCING MECHANISM?

Abstract

Increases in CO2 and other greenhouse gases will not be able to bring about significant climate disruption in the next 75-100 years. The main problem with the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory is the false treatment of the global hydrologic cycle which is not adequately understood by any of the AGW advocates. The water vapor, cloud, and condensation-evaporation assumptions within the conventional AGW theory and the (GCM) simulations are incorrectly designed to block too much infrared (IR) radiation to space. They also do not reflect-scatter enough short wave (albedo) energy to space. These two misrepresentations result in a large artificial warming that is not realistic. A realistic treatment of the hydrologic cycle would show that the influence of a doubling of CO2 should lead to a global surface warming of only about 0.3°C – not the 3°C warming as indicated by the climate simulations. The global surface warming of about 0.7°C that has been experienced over the last 150 years and the multi-decadal up-and-down global temperature changes of 0.3-0.4°C that have been observed over this period are hypothesized to be driven by a combination of multi-century and multi-decadal ocean circulation changes. These ocean changes are due to naturally occurring upper ocean salinity variations. Changes in CO2 play little role in these salinity driven ocean climate forcings.

1. The Earth’s Energy Budget

Although rises in CO2 act to block the normal long wave infrared (IR) radiation to space, this blockage is very small compared to the globe’s basic energy budget system. About 3.7 Wm-2 of IR energy is intercepted for a doubling of CO2 (Figure 1). Since the mid-19th century, CO2’sinfluence on IR blockage has increased by ~ 1.4 Wm-2 or 0.6 of 1 percent of the continuous average IR flux to space of 235 Wm-2. The continuous balancing of global average in-and-out net radiation flux is, by contrast, about 342 Wm2, almost 100 times larger than the amount of radiation blockage expected from a CO2 doubling over 1.5 centuries. A doubling of CO2 requires a warming of the globe of ~1°C to enhance outward IR flux by 3.7 Wm-2 to just be enough to balance the blockage of IR flux to space if all other factors are held constant.

But this pure IR energy blocking by CO2 versus compensating temperature rise for radiation equilibrium is unrealistic for the long-period and slow CO2 rises that are occurring. Only half of the blockage of 3.7 Wm-2 at the surface should be expected to go into temperature rise. The other half (~1.85 Wm-2) of the blocked IR energy to space will be compensated by surface energy loss to support enhanced evaporation. This occurs in a similar way as the earth’s surface energy budget compensates for half its solar gain of 171 Wm-2 by surface to air upward water vapor flux due to evaporation.

Note in Figures 1 and 2 that the globe’s annual surface solar absorption of 171 Wm-2 is balanced by about half going to evaporation (85 Wm-2) with the other half (86 Wm-2) going to surface to atmosphere upward IR (59 Wm-2) flux and surface to air upward flux by sensible heat transfer (27 Wm-2). Assuming that the imposed extra CO2 doubling IR blockage of 3.7 Wm-2 is taken-up and balanced by the earth’s surface as the solar absorption is taken-up and balanced, we should expect a direct warming of only ~ 0.5°C for a doubling of the CO2. The 1°C expected warming that is commonly accepted assumes that all the absorbed IR goes to balancing outward radiation (through E = σT4) with no energy going to evaporation. This is not realistic. These two figures show how equally the surface solar energy absorption (171 Wm-2) is balanced by a near equal division between temperature rise (enhancing IR and sensible heat loss) and energy loss from surface evaporation. We should assume that the imposed downward IR energy gain for a doubling of CO2 at the surface will likely be similarly divided. Such a division will cause an enhancement of the strength of the hydrologic cycle by about 2 percent (or 1.85 Wm-2 of extra global average evaporation over the ~ 85 Wm-2 energy equivalent of current evaporation).

This analysis shows that the influence of doubling atmospheric CO2 by itself (without any assumed positive feedback) leads to only very small amounts of global warming.

Fig 1

Figure 1. Vertical cross-section of the annual global energy budget as determined from a combination of ISCCP (discussed later) and NCEP reanalysis data over the period of 1984-2004. Note on the right, how small is the OLR (or IR) blockage that has occurred up to now due to CO2increases (~ 1.4 Wm-2) and how relatively small is the blockage of 3.7 Wm-2 that is estimated to occur when a doubling of CO2 takes place by the end of this century. Compare how small are these CO2 induced IR changes in Wm-2 to the global average solar impingement of 342 Wm-2units of incoming solar energy, 235 Wm-2 of outgoing IR (or OLR), 107 Wm-2 of outgoing short-wave albedo flux, and 171 Wm-2 of surface solar absorption. Without any assumed positive energy feedback from these CO2 increases, very little global warming will occur.

Fig 2

Figure 2. Estimated energy change at the surface of global mean rainfall (2.1% increase) and global mean temperature (~ 0.3°C) when, and if, equilibrium energy balance were established for a doubling of CO2 (and a blockage of IR energy to space of 3.7 Wm-2) with no positive or negative energy feedbacks.

2. Variations of Radiation is only a part of the Climate Change Physics

Internal mechanisms of the global energy budget such as evaporation-condensation and deep global ocean current variations also play an independent role from radiation as a major climate change mechanism (Figure 3). The whole AGW theory and dialog over the years has been based on radiation changes. This is far too narrow and naïve. Other important physical processes are important. Figure 1 shows that half the balancing of the earth’s surface absorption of solar radiation was accomplished by surface evaporation. And evaporation on the shorted time scales is determined primarily by the Bulk Formula as illustrated in Figure 4. Evaporation is dependent primarily on surface wind speed, sea minus air temperature difference, and surface air relative humidity. Evaporation rates are not well related to surface solar absorption on shorted time and space scales. Variations of radiation have been given far too much thought and credit and have carried far too much influence on the conceptual views of the causes of climate change.

Fig 3

Figure 3. Pointing out that climate variation is influenced by other processes besides variations in radiation. Evaporation-precipitation and deep ocean circulation changes also play a basic role.

Fig 4

Figure 4. Illustration of the breakdown of terms in the Bulk Formula (that determines evaporation rate) and their typical global average necessary to give a net average evaporation rate of a little under 0.3 gm/cm2 per day. A doubling of CO2 would bring about a blockage of 3.7 Wm-2 which is equivalent to variation of average global evaporation of about 4.2 percent if all this energy went into evaporation. In this case we could have a double of CO2 and no global warming at all.

 

3. Nature of Cumulus Convection

The AGW theory and the many AGW global model simulations assume that tropospheric relative humidity (RH) will remain quasi-constant as CO2 induced blockage of infrared (IR) radiation brings about temperature rises. Surface evaporation and rainfall must also increase under these conditions. The temperature and moisture from the CO2 gas increases are programmed in the GCM models to artificially increase the globe’s upper-tropospheric moisture with increased global temperature and rainfall. The resulting extra increased upper tropospheric moisture is assumed to block large amounts of additional outgoing infrared (IR) radiation to space beyond the blockage of CO2 by itself. This consequently leads to significant amounts of extra global temperature increase which is two to three times larger than what the CO2 doubling temperature increase can accomplish alone. Our observational analysis shows that these additional feedback warming assumptions are unrealistic. These incorrect views of convectively induced global warming originated with the National Academy of Science (NAS) report of 1979.

The NAS or Charney Report of 1979. The basic error of the global GCMs has been the model builder’s general belief in the National Academy of Science (NAS) 1979 study – often referred to as The Charney Report- which hypothesized that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would bring about a general warming of the globe’s mean temperature between 1.5 – 4.5oC (or an average of ~ 3.0oC) (Figure 5). This was based on the report’s assumption that the relative humidity (RH) of the atmosphere would remain quasi-constant as the globe’s temperature increased from CO2’s influence to block IR energy loss to space. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation specifies that as the temperature of the air rises the ability of the air to hold more water vapor rises exponentially. If relative humidity (RH) of the air were to remain constant as atmospheric temperature rose then the water vapor (q) amount in the atmosphere would accordingly rise. The water vapor content of the atmosphere rises by about 50 percent if atmospheric temperatures were to increase by 5oC and relative humidity remained constant. Rising water vapor content, particularly in the upper troposphere greatly reduce the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) which can escape to space.

Fig 5

Figure 5. The very influential NAS report of 1979 which deduced that any warming of the globe from CO2 increases would occur with constant relative humidity (RH). This would, in general, lead to an additional increase in atmospheric water vapor (q) and decrease outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). But this NAS report did not specifically deal with the water vapor content in the upper troposphere during periods of deep convection.

My colleague, Barry Schwartz and I have performed (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011) observational research using the NOAA-NCEP reanalysis data from 1950. We have also processed the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data for the period 1984-2004 for infrared (IR) and albedo energy flux to space and used this information in conjunction with the reanalysis data. Figure 6 shows the data sets we have used and Figure 7 shows the areas and locations over which we have combined our data sets with monthly and some daily rainfall information to observe how measured IR and albedo vary with different rainfall amounts. The NAS 1979 Charney Report and the numerical GCM simulations do not stand up to what we have found. Processing this data over the last few years has shown us that:

1. Upper tropospheric water vapor does not increase with increasing amounts of rainfall and temperature near the critical upper level IR emission level (Table 1).

2. Any extra blockage of infrared (IR) radiation to space due to increased CO2, rainfall or cloudiness is usually compensated by increase in albedo from the cloud tops (Figure 8). Increases in global rainfall lead to more net radiation (IR + albedo) flux to space and, all other factors held constant, to a weak global cooling. This is diametrically opposite to the AGW theory and what the GCMs climate simulations indicate.

Fig 6

Figure 6. Data sets used along with the data periods used for analysis. Both reanalysis and International ISCCP observations were analyzed.

Fig 7

Figure 7. Areas and specific locations where we have analyzed outgoing IR and albedo radiation to space vs. rainfall amounts.

Table 1. Changes in 300 mb temperature, specific humidity (q), and relative humidity (RH) in tropical areas between two rainfall difference data sets for the tropics. Rain differences average 3.9 percent for the 10 highest minus 10 lowest monthly differences (top) and 1.9 percent for the [(95-04) – (84-94)] data set differences (bottom). Negative values are in red. All 300 mb moisture parameters showed decreases with enhanced rainfall.

Table 1

The typical enhancement of rainfall and updraft motion in deep cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds within heavy raining meso-scale disturbance areas acts to increase the return flow mass subsidence in the surrounding broader clear and partly cloudy regions (Figure 8). Global rainfall increases typically cause an overall reduction of specific humidity (q) and relative humidity (RH) in the upper tropospheric levels of the broader scale surrounding convection subsidence regions. This leads to a net enhancement of radiation energy to space over the rainy areas and over broad areas of the globe. Albedo is typically decreased to space as much (or slightly more) than IR is increased to space in the broad scale clear and partly cloudy areas. But over the rain and cloudy areas albedo energy to space is increased slightly more than infrared (IR) radiation is reduced to space. The albedo enhancement over the cloud-rain areas tends to increase the net (IR + albedo) radiation energy to space more than the weak suppression of (IR + albedo) in the clear areas. Near neutral conditions occur in the partly cloudy areas (Figure 9).

Our observational studies (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011) of the variations of outward radiation (IR + albedo) energy flux to space (ISCCP data) vs. tropical and global precipitation increase (from NCEP reanalysis data) indicates that there is not a reduction of global net radiation (IR + Albedo) to space which is associated with increased global or tropical-regional rainfall. There is, in fact, a weak tendency to go the opposite way.

Fig 8

Figure 8. Two contrasting views of the effects of how the continuous intensification of deep cumulus convection would act to alter radiation flux to space. The top diagram emphasizes the increasing extra mass flow return subsidence associated with an ever increasing depth and intensity of cumulus convection. Radiation flux to space increases with enhanced deep convection and rainfall due to a lowering of the upper-level emission level and an increase in albedo. By contrast, the bottom diagram interprets the increase of deep convection (like the GCMs have done) as acting to add moisture to the upper tropospheric levels and cause a decrease of radiation to space. The bottom diagram is not realistic and is the primary reason why the GCMs exaggerate CO2’s influence on global warming.

Fig 9

Figure 9. Typical variations of IR, albedo and (IR + albedo) associated with three different areas of rain and cloud for periods of increased precipitation.

SUMMARY. Our data indicates that, in general, the positive water vapor feedback assumptionsof the GCM global climate simulations for CO2 doubling are not valid. We should put no credence in their projections of large amounts of global warming (~ 3°C) for a doubling of CO2.

 

4. The Ocean as the Primary Driver for Global Climate Change

This paper hypothesizes that it is variations in the global ocean’s Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) that are the primary driver of climate change over the last few thousand years. These changes are manifested in alterations of the deep water formation of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) and the Surrounding Antarctica Subsidence (SAS) regions (Figure 10). Figure 11 shows how the MOC is a combination of the high latitude deep water formation of the Atlantic THC and the Antarctic SAS region. These deep water formation changes are driven by upper ocean salinity variations on various multi-decadal to multi-century time scales. Figure 12 shows typical Atlantic Ocean current differences when the Atlantic THC is strong (and more sinking is occurring) and when it is weak (and less sinking is occurring).

A slowing down of the global ocean’s Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC = THC + SAS) is the likely cause of most of the global warming that has been observed since the latter part of the 19thcentury. Shorter multi-decadal changes in the MOC are hypothesized to be responsible for the more recent global warming periods between 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 and the weak multi-decadal cooling periods between 1945-1975 and 2000 to the present. This current weak cooling is projected to go on for the next couple of decades. Figure 13 shows the typical parameter circulation features which accompanies periods when the MOC (or THC) is stronger than normal and when it is weaker than normal. Note the typical changes in North Atlantic blocking action, El Nino activity, middle-latitude zonal winds, etc for strong vs. weak phases of the MOC (or THC).

When the MOC (or THC) is stronger than average there is more upwelling of cold water in the South Pacific and Indian Oceans, and an increase in global rainfall of a few percent occurs. This causes the global surface temperatures to cool. The opposite occurs when the MOC (or THC) is weaker than normal. There is less upwelling of cold water, global rainfall is reduced a few percent and the global surface temperature warms.

Fig 10

Figure 10. Idealized representation of the globe’s salinity driven ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) which is composed of deep ocean sinking by the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC), areas H, and in the Surrounding Antarctic Subsidence (SAS), purple areas X. Figure adapted from John Marshall.

The MOC (or THC) average strength over the last 150 years has likely been below the multi-millennium average and that is the primary reason we have seen this long global warming since the late 19th century. The globe appears to be rebounding from the conditions of the Little Ice Age to more Holocene average or above-average conditions which were typical of the earlier ‘Medieval’ and ‘Roman’ warm periods.

Fig 11

Figure 11. Illustration of how the global ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is defined as a combination of the high north latitude Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) upper ocean subsidence and the high latitude Southern Hemisphere Surrounding Antarctic Subsidence (SAS) upper ocean subsidence.

Fig 12

Figure 12. Idealized portrayal of the primary Atlantic Ocean upper ocean currents during strong vs. weak phases of the thermohaline circulation (THC).

Fig 13

Figure 13. Portrayal of typical circulation differences that occur with a strong or above average global MOC (or THC) – top, and a below average or weak MOC (or THC) – bottom. Note the many global circulation differences, especially for the North Atlantic blocking action, global rainfall, El Nino activity, etc.

GCMs do not yet accurately model the globe’s deep-water ocean circulation. Accurately modeling the global ocean’s deep circulation is fundamental to any realistic understanding of global temperature change. The multi-decadal global warming periods between 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 and the multi-decadal cooling between 1880-1910, 1945-1975 and 2000-present are hypothesized to be due to Atlantic upper ocean salinity variations (Figures 14 and 15). The longer multi-century warming of the last 150 years is hypothesized to be largely due to the longer period multi-century full global slow-down in the strength of global ocean deep water formation. Both the Atlantic THC and the Antarctic SAS play a role in this multi-century MOC weakening. This long-period combined weakening of the MOC is viewed as being driven by a global upper ocean salinity decrease. CO2changes play little role in these global-scale ocean changes. Figure 15 shows the long global warming curve of the last 130 years with the superimposed multi-decadal periods of up-and-down global temperature change which are superimposed on this longer upward warming cycle.

There is no way we can blame most of the last century’s global warming of 0.7°C on rises in CO2. Most of this long-period temperature rise has been caused by natural climate changes of which humans have played no significant role. This long-period warming of ~ 0.7°C is hypothesized to be a result of the long period slow down of the global ocean’s Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) which is driven by natural multi-century variations of upper ocean salinity. The shorter period multi-decadal up-and-down global temperature changes we have experienced during the last 100-150 years are a result of stronger and weaker multi-decadal THC periods driven primarily by Atlantic multi-decadal variations of salinity (Figures 14 and 15).

Fig 14

Figure 14. The global surface temperature change is given by the solid blue line; the dotted blue and dotted red lines illustrate how much error one would have made by extrapolating a multi-decadal cooling or warming trend beyond a typical 25-35 year period of warming or cooling. Note the recent 1975-2000 warming trend has not continued, and we are currently in a weak global cooling period that should continue, I believe, until about 2025-2030.

Fig 15

Figure 15. Idealized portrayal of the negative long-term multi-century THC (or MOC) that we have had since the mid-19th century (purple dotted line) due to the last 150 year weakening of the THC due to global multi-century upper-ocean salinity changes. This has caused the last century-and-a-half mean warming of 0.7°C. Superimposed on this salinity driven long-term ocean circulation warming are the multi-decadal warming and cooling periods shown by the up-and-down red line that is influenced by the multi-decadal variation in the salinity-induced strength of the Atlantic Ocean THC (green line). When the Atlantic THC is weak the globe typically undergoes multi-decadal weak warming periods. When the THC is strong the globe typically experiences weak cooling periods.

 

5. Failure of the Global Climate Models

AGW theory fails because the basic physics behind it is flawed. Its primary scientific justification has come from global climate model simulations which have serious embedded physical assumption errors. These model assumption errors cause their 75-100 year climate forecast simulations to give unrealistically too high global warming results by a factor as much as 10. These GCMs indicate that when CO2 doubles near the end of this century that the global average surface temperature should increase by about 3°C. All of the 19 global numerical models calculations that were discussed in the latest IPCC-AR4 (2007) report show about the same 3°C global warming for a doubling of CO2 (Figures 16 and 17). If this magnitude of warming were realistic it would bring about a major disruption in our global climate system and severely impact all life on earth. But it is not physically possible for this magnitude of 3°C global warming to occuras a consequence of the doubling of CO2 and a resulting blockage of but 3.7 Wm-2. All the global circulation models have the same major physical flaw which is known as the ‘positive water-vapor feedback loop’. The argument goes like this:

1. Models assume that as CO2 increases to doubling that this causes the atmosphere to warm 1°C in order to send more IR energy to space in order to come into a radiative equilibrium. However, as discussed in section 3, the real warming for a doubling of CO2should be only half this amount (~ 0.5°C). These GCM models then incorrectly assume that as the atmospheric temperatures increase approaches 1°C, that the relative humidity (RH) of the atmosphere remains constant. Any warming with constant RH causes the water vapor content of the atmosphere to rise. This extra assumed water vapor increase resulting from this warming then is assumed (incorrectly) to cause a large additional blockage of IR energy to space. This additional IR blockage due to the extra moisture increase is 2-3 times as large as the original IR blockage from the original CO2 doubling. This is known as the positive water-vapor feedback loop or the needed additional moisture-temperature rise that must occur to keep RH constant while achieving a new radiational equilibrium after CO2 doubles. This extra water vapor gain is needed to maintain constant RH while CO2 doubles. This makes it necessary that IR energy flux to space be further decreased by about twice (~ 7.4 Wm-2) the amount of the original IR blockage from CO2 doubling alone. To accomplish all these changes and maintain their numerical climate model in radiation equilibrium they must increase their global temperatures by an additional 2°C beyond the original 1°C warming needed to balance 3.7 Wm-2.

This strong additional water vapor gain and resulting 2°C temperature increase to obtain radiation equilibrium are not realistic. In fact, our project’s observational analysis (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011) show that in the critical upper tropospheric RH does not go up as temperature rises and rainfall increases. By contrast, we find that upper level water vapor slightly decreases (Table 1) with additional rainfall and temperature rise. This is a result of the mass balancing upper-level subsidence drying from the return flow of the deep penetrating cumulonimbus (Cb) convective updrafts (Figure 8).

This strong positive water vapor feedback loop which the GCMs rely so heavily on for the largest part of their global warming simulations is not strongly positive as they have assumed all these years, but slightly negative. There cannot be an extra global warming which is twice as large as the original amount of warming coming from the doubling of CO2by itself (if 1°C) or four times as large a warming if the modelers had used the correct 0.5°C warming – as discussed above. This is the huge conceptual error of the GCM numerical simulations and the primary reason why they have so grossly exaggerated the global warming that would result from a doubling of CO2. A number of us have for years been pointing out this massive conceptual error in the GCM simulations. But the modelers take no notice and proceed on with their erroneous GCM simulations and dire future warming predictions.

Fig 16

Figure 16. Scatter plot of the extra global feedback energy increases resulting from water vapor, albedo, cloud, and lapse-rate changes due to a doubling of CO2 from 19 GCMs of the 2007 IPCC-AR4 report. All models give strong positive energy feedbacks equivalent to about 2°C warming.

Fig 17

Figure 17. Comparison of the mean GCM feedback magnitudes (yellow circles) vs. what our observations (Gray and Schwartz, 2010 and 2011) imply as to the magnitude of the various feedback processes (red squares).

We envisage the expected 0.5°C warming from a doubling of CO2 that occurs with enhanced global rainfall to cause a small negative (not positive) feedback of about – 0.2°C, certainly not the positive feedback of 2.0°C that the GCMs indicate. The estimated global temperature change which my colleague (Barry Schwartz) and I project from a doubling of CO2 near the end of the 21st century is only about 0.3°C, which is only about one-tenth of the global warming projected by nearly all of the recent GCM climate simulations (Figure 18).

Fig 18

Figure 18. Comparison of the IPCC-AR4 GCMs prediction of global warming vs. the author’s estimate of global warming when CO2 amounts double near the end of the 21st century.

6. Summary of Basic Climate Change Physics

During the last one-to-two thousand years of the Holocene period when the solar influence of the earth’s changing orbital parameters have been small, it is hypothesized that the back-and-forth variations of the globe’s deep ocean circulation patterns operating on multi-century and multi-decadal time scales can explain most of our globe’s prominent surface temperature variations. Solar variations, sunspots, and cosmic ray changes are energy-wise too small and mostly in the noise level to play a significant role in the large energy changes that occur during these important multi-decadal and multi-century temperature changes as shown in Figures 19 and 20. Figure 21 shows idealized differences of typical strengths of Atlantic THC circulation between the 19th and 20th centuries. It is the weaker 20th century MOC which is hypothesized to have brought about the global warming of about 0.7°C during this century. Figure 22 gives evidence of large differences in ocean deep water formation between the 19th and 20th century.

Volcanic influences are present for only a few years and cannot explain the long-period observed multi-decadal and multi-century temperature changes. And CO2 changes could not have played any significant role in these long multi-century temperature changes of the past.

It is the earth’s internal fluctuations which are the most important cause of climate and temperature change. These internal fluctuations are driven primarily by deep multi-decadal and multi-century ocean circulation changes of which naturally varying upper ocean salinity content is hypothesized to be the primary driving mechanism. Salinity controls ocean density at cold temperatures and high latitudes where the potential deep water formation sites of the THC and SAS are located. North Atlantic upper ocean salinity changes are brought about by both multi-decadal and multi-century induced North Atlantic salinity variability. More detailed explanations will be given in forth-coming papers.

Fig 19

Figure 19. Last two thousand year surface temperatures between 30-90°N constructed from a synthesis of a large variety of observational data sources. Red lines denote long multi-century periods of warming, blue lines denote long multi-century periods of cooling. This figure illustrates the 300 to 700 year-long multi-century temperature changes hypothesized to be caused by the multi-century variation in the full globe ocean’s salinity changes on this time scale. The long red warming periods are times when the MOC and global rainfall are weaker than average and the long blue cooling periods are when the MOC and global rainfall are above average.

Fig 20

Figure 20. Same as in Figure 19, but emphasizing the multi-decadal variation of surface temperature which have an average period of about 60 years. These multi-decadal changes are hypothesized to be primarily a result of the variations of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) on this time scale. Naturally occurring multi-decadal variations of Atlantic salinity are believed to be the primary cause for these approximate 60-year fluxuations.

Fig 21

Figure 21. Hypothesized differences in the strength of the Atlantic THC between the 19th and 20thcenturies, that has been inferred from various data sources, such as that shown in Figure 22.

Fig 22

Figure 22. Summary statement from a paper by Broecker et al. (1999) which indicated a large difference in deep water formation between the 19th and 20th centuries.19

7. Negative Consequences of Politics Trumping Climate Science

Until the basic scientific flaws in the AGW theory are recognized and broadly accepted (as they eventually will have to be) it will not be possible for the scientific community and society to put this pernicious and harmful hoax to rest. The wide acceptance of this theory has had a profound negative influence on the US and the world. AGW’s basic scientific flaws must be made known as soon as possible so that the public can be made aware as to the fallacy of this hypothesis. This will help reduce the current economic, political, and psychological harm which is occurring around the globe due to AGW’s unrealistic warming propaganda and prevent greater harm in future years.

The AGW climate scare of the last 30 years did not come to the forefront from individual scientists beginning to coalesce around the idea that rising levels of CO2 might pose a serious future climate threat to society. This threat was, by contrast, imposed upon the world from ‘above’ by the coming together of globally influential politicians, environmentalists, internationalists, etc. who knew little about climate but saw great political opportunities by using the rising CO2 levels as a scare tactic in order to exercise control over them. People respond best out of fear. But lasting response to fear must have a firm basis in truth. The AGW scare does not.

Had I not spent my whole career (of nearly 60 years) in the meteorology-climate area and knew about AGW only from what I read or heard from the mainstream media, I may have been susceptible to accepting much of the AGW propaganda. This is why so many talented scientists from other fields have been unconsciously sucked into the wide orbit of AGW believers. Very few individuals have the long and broad ranging technical background in meteorology-climate to be able to well understand and attack the basic flaws of the AGW hypothesis. This is why so many of the world’s scientific societies and governments have been brainwashed into accepting AGW’s erroneous beliefs.

The warnings of President Eisenhower of the capture of overwhelming government support by an elite industrial-military complex are now being realized. But in this more recent version it is our country’s global warming – environmental – world government elites who have captured our country’s overwhelming government support for AGW funding and society intervention. The just published book by Senator James Inhofe titled “The Greatest Hoax” gives much information on the recent political history of the take-over of society by those advocating world government.

I have absolutely no doubt that the AGW hypothesis will become fully discredited within the next decade or so. A doubling of CO2 near the end of the 21st century should, by itself, only bring about a global warming of about 0.3°C or only about one-tenth of the ~3°C global warming projected by nearly all of the GCM models.

America’s economic growth and its confidence in the future will be greatly enhanced when the false dangers of the AGW hypothesis threat have been fully exposed and put behind us. America independence requires that we avoid the controlling tentacles of world government based on an unrealistic fear of human-induced climate degradation. Our Federal Government’s current AGW beliefs and its massive funding to promote this agenda should be terminated.

8. References (Partial Listing)

Crichton, M., 2003: Aliens Cause Global Warming. California Institute of Technology Lecture. Available on the internet.

Crichton, M., 2004: State of Fear. Harper Collins, 579 pp.

Douglass, D.H., Christy, J.R., Pearson, B.D. and Singer, S.F, 2007: A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651. DOI: 10.1260/095830509787689277.

Gray, W.M., 2001: Natural versus anthropogenic climate change. Proceedings of the 1stInternational Conference on Global Warming and The Next Ice Age, Halifax, N.S., Canada (4 pages).

Gray, W. M., 2008: Human-Induced Global Warming: The Great Exaggeration. First Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, 73 pp., New York, March 2-4, 2008.

Gray, W. M., 2009: Climate change: Driven by the ocean, not human activity. 2nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, 22 pp., New York, March 8-10, 2009.

Gray, W. M., 2010: Climate change: Driven by the ocean, not human activity. 4th Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, 24 pp., Chicago, May 18-20, 2010.

Gray, W.M., J.D. Sheaffer, and C.W. Landsea, 1997: Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity, in Hurricanes. Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, edited by H. F. Diaz and R. S. Pulwarty, pp. 15-53, Springer-Verlag, New York.

Gray, W. M. and P. J. Klotzbach, 2011: Have Increases in CO2 Contributed to the Recent Large Upswing in Atlantic Basin Major Hurricanes since 1995? Evidence-Based Climate Science. (pp. 223-249). Elsevier Inc. (ISBN: 9780123859563).

Gray, W. M. and B. Schwartz, 2010: The association of outgoing radiation with variations of precipitation – implications for global warming. Presented at the 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (AMS), Tucson, AZ, May 10-14, 2010.

Gray, W. M. and B. Schwartz, 2011: The association of albedo and OLR radiation with variations of precipitation – implications for AGW. Presented at the 91st meeting of the AMS Conference, Seattle, WA, January 23-27, 2011.

Ljungqvist, F.C., 2010: A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, 92, 339-351. Michaels, P.J. and colleagues, 2005: Shattered Consensus, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 304 pp.

Michaels, P.J. and R. Balling, Jr., 2000: The Satanic Gases, Cato Institute, 224 pp.

Mooney, C., 2007: Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming. Harcourt, 400 pp.

Pilkey, O.H. and L. Pilkey-Jarvis, 2007: Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can’t Predict the Future. Columbia University Press, 248 pp.

Schiffer, R.A., and Rossow, W.B., 1985: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Global Radiance Data Set: A New Resource for Climate Research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 66, 1498-1505.

Singer, F., 1997: Hot Talk Cold Science. The Independent Institute, Oakland, CA. 207 pp.

Singer, F. and D.T. Avery, 2007: Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1500 Years, Rowman and Littlefield, 264 pp.

Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 996 pp.

Weart, S.R., 2003: The Discovery of Global Warming, Harvard University Press, 228 pp.

January Ocean SSTs Cooling

Science Matters

volvo_globpopThe best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.  More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end.

The Current Context

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through January 2019.

Hadsst012019

A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016, joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016.  2018 started with slow warming after…

View original post 1,324 more words

Hurricanes and Climate Change: Attribution

Key Quote:  “…the IPCC AR5 best estimate is that all of the warming since 1951 has been caused by humans.

So, what caused the early 20th century global warming? This issue has received remarkably little attention from climate scientists. Lack of an explanation for the early 20th century global warming diminishes the credibility of the attribution statement for warming since 1951.”

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Part II:  what causes variations and changes in hurricane activity?

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Cold outbreaks are not caused by global warming

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Global cooling – and global totalitarian socialism – are the catastrophes we should fear most

Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris

What do heat waves, floods, droughts, rising sea levels, forest fires, hurricanes, African wars, mass extinctions, disease outbreaks, and human and animal migrations from South America and the Middle East have in common?

According to climate activists, they are all caused by dangerous man-made global warming. And this, in turn, is supposedly caused by rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels resulting from our use of fossil fuels.

They might as well add alien invasions to the list, because it is all nonsense. Indeed, the climate scare industry has achieved such a level of absurdity that, on February 1, journalist Andrew Revkin reported in a National Geographic article that, “Many stories in recent days highlighted studies concluding that global warming is boosting the odds of cold [weather] outbreaks.”

(As we delve into the realm of absurdity, however, let us not forget that, in 2011, scientists from NASA’s Planetary Science Division and Michael Mann’s Penn State University actually presented a report speculating that extraterrestrial environmentalists could be so appalled by our planet-polluting, climate-changing ways that they could view humans as a threat to the entire intergalactic ecosystem and decide to destroy humanity!)

Among the most absurd of recent climate alarm statements is the one attributing recent cold spells to manmade global warming came from University of Michigan professor emeritus of environment and sustainability Donald Scavia, who said: “In the past there was a very strong gradient of cold air at the poles and warmer air south of the poles. That gradient kept the cold where it is…. As the poles are warming faster than the rest of the planet, that gradient weakens, allowing the cold air currents to dip south.”

Dr. Tim Ball, an environmental consultant and former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg in Manitoba, said that Scavia’s statement “is utter rubbish.” Ball explained, “It’s wrong in every aspect, from the basic assumption to the interpretation. In fact, a gradient makes things move. It doesn’t ‘keep the cold where it is.’”

It’s also a mistake to think that, if human-produced CO2 is actually causing global warming, the poles will warm first. “There is no evidence of that; they just are assuming it to be the case,” Dr. Ball emphasized.

And, if the poles did warm first, Ball explained, the reduced temperature difference between the poles and lower latitude regions would reduce extreme weather events, not intensify them, as climate campaigners claim. After all, weather and extreme weather events are driven by the temperature gradient between latitudes. A warming Arctic would result in less intense cold outbreaks and a lesser intrusion of cold artic air colliding with warm moist air in warmer regions. Climate alarmists have their science backwards.

Ball noted that the real cause of the severe cold outbreaks in the United States is a wavy Jet Stream.

The Jet Stream is a thin band of strong winds that flow rapidly around the planet from west to east at approximately 10 km altitude. The Jet Stream divides warm air masses, typically found at low latitudes towards the tropics, from cold air masses, usually found at high latitudes near the poles.

However, a very wavy jet stream, as we are experiencing now (and have many times in the past), allows frigid Arctic air to move south to normally warmer latitudes and warm tropical air to push into Polar latitudes. The result is an increase in extreme weather events, including the cold outbreaks in the USA. It has nothing to do with global warming. In fact, the most common cause of a wavy Jet Stream is global cooling. History shows that severe weather increases with a cooling world, not a warming one.

As to fears of more cold outbreaks due to global warming, Ball laughed, “They’re making it all up!”

Clearly, there is no end to the deceptions that the climate lobby will tell the public in order to deprive the world of reliable, inexpensive fossil fuel-based energy, the foundation of modern living standards. Perhaps the greatest deception of all is what real scientists call cherry picking – highlighting data that advance their theory and agenda, while ignoring data that do not support their politics.

The graph below explains how they do it. The overall trend of the data is obvious: as variable “A” declines, variable “B” increases. But if you choose only a small portion of the data (or just a few years out of 100 or 1,000), you can declare the trend to be anything you want – including having “A” stay the same as “B” increases, and even having “A” increase as “B” increases.

clip_image002

This is the sleight-of-hand used by global warming alarmists who want the public to believe that burning fossil fuels and increasing the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide must be stopped at all costs. They want to run the nation and the world on expensive, inconvenient, unreliable wind and solar energy. They ignore the fact that those energy must be totally backed up by dependable energy sources like fossil fuel or nuclear in order to stop the grid from collapsing. It has been calculated that, were the Midwest to be dependent only on wind and solar power, at least one million people would have died of hypothermia during the recent minus-50 degrees F cold spell.

As demonstrated by Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels, the latest report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, the impact of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) has been overwhelmingly positive. The report’s Summary for Policymakers states:

“Fossil fuels have benefited humanity by making possible the prosperity that occurred since the first Industrial Revolution…. Fossil fuels also power the technologies that reduce the environmental impact of a growing human population, saving space for wildlife…. Nearly all the impacts of fossil fuel use on human well-being are net positive (benefits minus costs), near zero (no net benefit or cost), or are simply unknown.”

Besides raising living standards across the world, fossil fuel use has helped elevate CO2 in our atmosphere from a level dangerously close to the point at which plants start to die – to where we are today, with the Earth once again “greening,” as crops, forests and grasslands grow faster and better.

The global warming scare has never been about science, or even climate for that matter. The long-term goal of many activists is to unite the world under a single socialistic government in which there is no capitalism, no democracy and no freedom. After all, personal freedom is fueled largely by access to affordable energy.

An intermediate goal of climate alarmism is thus to limit the amount of energy that is available and place it under tight government control. Inexpensive fossil fuels remain an obstacle to their vision, and so must be done away with entirely, climate campaigners maintain. We must not let them succeed.

Dr. Jay Lehr is the Science Director of The Heartland Institute which is based in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa-based International Climate Science Coalition.