Katharine Hayhoe’s High Hopes for President Trump’s New Climate Science Advisor

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

President Trump’s choice is approved by both Katharine Hayhoe and Roger Pielke Jr.

Can Trump’s new science adviser convince him that climate change is real?

Brandon Miller-Profile-Image
By Brandon Miller, CNN
Updated 2030 GMT (0430 HKT) January 3, 2019

(CNN) In the eleventh hour of the outgoing Congress’ term, the Senate confirmed one of President Trump’s nominees that could have a profound impact on the future of our planet.

Kelvin Droegemeier, a meteorologist and former University of Oklahoma professor, was confirmed to be director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy on Wednesday– a role commonly referred to as “science adviser” and the top scientific office in the country.

The position has sat vacant since Trump’s presidency began nearly two years ago.

“It is encouraging to see that this position is finally filled, and by someone with solid scientific credentials and extensive experience in connecting cutting-edge science to policy decisions,” according to Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist with Texas Tech University.

Trump has a history of dismissing his own experts, whether they be top intelligence reports or senior military officials, so many are skeptical that Droegemeier will have much influence over Trump’s view on climate.

“No one should expect that he will be advising this president on any meaningful manner,” said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor at the University of Colorado who studies the intersection of science and politics and who has published on the history of US science advisers. Pielke has worked with Droegemeier and known him for more than 20 years.

“This president does not appear to seek advice,” Pielke said, adding that the primary function of the science adviser has historically been to coordinate budgets and support science and technology programs that cross agency boundaries.

“Science advisers have historically had little, if any, impact on major policies,” Pielke said. “This goes for John Holdren under Obama and all others before him.”

Read more: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/us/trump-science-adviser-climate-change-wxc/index.html

Droegemeier is certainly good at something, if he can get the thumbs up from people as opposed as Katharine Hayhoe and Roger Pielke Jr.

Update (EW): Fixed misspelling of Katharine Hayhoe’s name

 

[Hifast Note:  The Comment thread at WUWT is outstanding.  Click here to go.]

The Social Benefit Of Carbon

Skating Under The Ice

Cross-posted from Watts Up With That, where I publish my scientific work.

After my recent post on the futility of the US cutting down on CO2 emissions, I got to thinking about what is called the “social cost of carbon”. (In passing, even the name is a lie. It’s actually the supposed cost of carbon DIOXIDE, not carbon … salesmanship and “framing” applied to what should be science. But I digress …)

According to the Environmental Defense Fund the “social cost of carbon” is:

… the dollar value of the total damages from emitting one ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The current central estimate of the social cost of carbon is roughly $40 per ton.

Now, for me, discussing the “social cost of carbon” is a dereliction of scientific duty because it is only half of an analysis.

A real analysis is where you draw a vertical…

View original post 2,254 more words

Huge Amounts of Oil In Texas and New Mexico

sunshine hours

Wow. There is no shortage of oil in Texas and New Mexico!

USGS Announces Largest Continuous Oil Assessment in Texas and New Mexico

Estimates Include 46.3 Billion Barrels of Oil, 281 Trillion Cubic feet of Natural Gas, and 20 Billion Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids in Texas and New Mexico’s Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring Formation.

Image shows a map of the assessment units of the 2018 Delaware Basin oil and gas assessment

View original post

A Geological Perspective on Arctic Sea Ice Extent (AKA PIP25: “Miracle on Ice”)

From Watts Up With That:

Guest review article by David Middleton

We’re often bombarded with headlines line this:

Arctic sea ice continues its downward spiral

At 4.6 million square kilometres in coverage, this year’s sea ice minimum is the sixth lowest on record.

The problem with headlines like this is the fact that the “record” only dates back to 1979. How meaningful could “the sixth lowest on record” be, when the record isn’t even forty years long?

NSIDC does feature an estimate of Arctic sea ice extent that goes back to 1953 based on the “Hadley data set”…

Arctic sea ice before satellites, NSIDC

Based on this analysis, Arctic sea ice extent was anomalously high from 1953 to 1978 and has shrunk to anomalously low since 1979.  This is not very meaningful from a geological perspective.  In a previous post, I cited McKay et al., 2008 as an example of a geological perspective on Arctic sea ice extent.

The Arctic was probably ice-free during summer for most of the Holocene up until about 1,000 years ago.  McKay et al., 2008 demonstrated that the modern Arctic sea ice cover is anomalously high and the Arctic summer sea surface temperature is anomalously low relative to the rest of the Holocene.

chukchi

Over most of the Holocene, >50% sea ice coverage occurred from 5.5 to 9 months each year.  During the “Anthropocene”, >50% sea ice coverage has ranged from 9 to 12 months each year.

Anthropocene

Steve Mosher noted in the comments that, “The Chukchi Sea IS NOT THE ARCTIC !!!! It is part of the arctic.”

This is very true… However, sediment cores are pretty-well limited to where they have been drilled.   In another recent thread, tty brought Stein et al., 2017 to my attention.  After reading through it, I decided that there was enough material there to take a crack at a general characterization of Holocene sea ice conditions relative to modern times.

PIP25: “Miracle on Ice”

In a pioneering study by Belt et al. (2007), the ability to (semi-)quantitatively reconstruct paleo-sea ice distributions has been significantly improved by a biomarker approach based on determination of a highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) with 25 carbons (C25 HBI monoene = IP25). This biomarker is only biosynthesized by specific diatoms living within the Arctic sea ice (Brown et al., 2014) and appears to be a specific, sensitive and stable proxy for Arctic sea ice in sedimentary sections representing Late Miocene to Recent times (Stein et al., 2012, 2016; Belt and M€uller, 2013; Stein and Fahl, 2013; Knies et al., 2014). The presence of IP25 in the studied sediments is direct evidence for the presence of sea ice.

[…]

For more semi-quantitative estimates of present and past sea ice coverage, M€uller et al. (2011) combined the sea-ice proxy IP25 and phytoplankton biomarkers in a phytoplankton- IP25 index, the so-called ‘PIP25 index’:

PIP25 = IP25/([IP25/(IP25 + ([phytoplankton marker] x c))

with c is the mean IP25 concentration/mean phytoplankton biomarker concentration for a specific data set or core.

[…]

Stein et al., 2017

The image below is of a Late Quaternary sea ice reconstruction for the western Yermak Plateau from Belt, et al., 2016

Pages from Belt_2013-2

Generally speaking, the PIP25 index correlates to sea ice extent as follows:

  • >0.7 = Perennial (year-round) ice cover
  • 0.5-0.7 = Seasonal ice cover
  • 0.1-0.3 = Reduced ice cover
  • <0.1 = Ice-free year-round

Most of the Arctic has had seasonal sea ice cover over the past 30 years, with a relatively small area of perennial sea ice.

Perennial sea ice is roughly equivalent to the recent minima.  Seasonal sea ice is more or less the difference between the maxima and minima.

So… How does this compare to the rest of the Holocene?

A geological perspective on Arctic sea ice extent

Kinnard et al., 2008 estimated Arctic sea ice extent minima and maxima back to about 1880 from a variety of methods.  A comparison of this with a PIP25 reconstruction of the North Icelandic Shelf sea ice extent suggests that modern sea ice extent is somewhere between that of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP), probably closer to the MWP.

MWP_Present

Stein et al., 2017 compared sea ice extent reconstructions using PIP25 indices from four cores around the current area of perennial sea ice.

Stein_2017_Map

A comparison of the Fram Strait core to the North Icelandic Shelf indicates that the sea ice extent of the MWP was anomalously higher than the vast majority of the Holocene.  Prior to the onset of Neoglaciation, Arctic sea ice extent appears to have ranged from nearly ice-free to the low end of seasonal coverage.

Holocene_MWP

Andy May’s Arctic climate reconstruction exhibits the same general pattern as the four PIP25 sea ice extent reconstructions:

PiP25_May_Recon

Prior to the onset of Neoglaciation, Arctic sea ice ranged from nearly ice-free to reduced.  Since the onset of Neoglaciation, it has ranged from seasonal to perennial.

I plotted Andy May’s excellent Arctic climate reconstruction as an overlay of the Chukchi Sea core from Stein et al, 2017 to demonstrate the relatively decent correlation between Arctic temperatures and sea ice conditions.  Note that all four core locations exhibit perennial sea ice during the Late LIA… And only during the Late LIA.

PiP25_May_Recon_2

While it is clear that Arctic sea ice extent has diminished since 1979, it’s also important to note that this reduction must be viewed in the context of the overall Holocene.  Holocene Arctic sea ice extent reached its Holocene maximum between 1600 and 1850 AD.

Figure 4 from Belt et al., 2013

So any reductions are from the maximum values of this geologic epoch.  The LIA was clearly the coldest phase of the Holocene and modern sea ice conditions are much closer to the LIA than they are to the pre-Neoglaciation period.

References

Alley, R.B. 2000.  The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland.
Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.

Belt S.T., Müller J.  The Arctic sea ice biomarker IP25: A review of current understanding, recommendations for future research and applications in palaeo sea ice reconstructions. (2013)  Quaternary Science Reviews,  79 , pp. 9-25.

Belt_2013

Hoff U, Rasmussen TL, Stein R, Ezat MM, Fahl K. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present. Nature Communications. 2016;7:12247. doi:10.1038/ncomms12247.

Hoff_2016

Kinnard, C., Zdanowicz,C.M., Koerner,R .,Fisher,D.A., 2008. A changing Arctic seasonal ice zone–observations from 1870–2003 and possible oceanographic consequences. 35, L02507.

Kinnard_2008

May, Andy. A Holocene Temperature Reconstruction Part 4: The global reconstruction. Watts Up With That. 2017.

May_2017

Polyak, Leonid, Richard B. Alley, John T. Andrews, Julie Brigham-Grette, Thomas M. Cronin, Dennis A. Darby, Arthur S. Dyke, Joan J. Fitzpatrick, Svend Funder, Marika Holland, Anne E. Jennings, Gifford H. Miller, Matt O’Regan, James Savelle, Mark Serreze, Kristen St. John, James W.C. White, Eric Wolff.  History of sea ice in the Arctic, Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 29, Issues 15–16, 2010, Pages 1757-1778, ISSN 0277-3791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010.

polyak_etal_seaice_QSR_10

Stein, R. , Fahl, K. , Schade, I. , Manerung, A. , Wassmuth, S. , Niessen, F. and Nam, S. (2017), Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific‐Water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean). J. Quaternary Sci., 32: 362-379. doi:10.1002/jqs.2929

stein2017

‘Outstanding’ oil flow produced by Gatwick Gusher

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/outstanding-oil-flow-produced-by-gatwick-gusher-a6945341.html

News from the failed Independent, which will be guaranteed to make Geoffrey Lean’s hair stand on end!

The exploration company said it had completed its final test at Horse Hill, just north of Gatwick Airport, and that the aggregate flow from three layers of oil-bearing rock had been 1,688 barrels per day.

“The flow test results are outstanding, demonstrating North Sea-like oil rates from an onshore well,” said UKOG executive chairman Steve Sanderson. “This simple vertical well has achieved an impressive aggregate oil rate equivalent to 8.5 per cent of total UK onshore daily oil production.

“We are delighted, therefore, that this discovery has the serious prospect of being a meaningful addition to the UK’s own supply of oil in a period where North Sea production is declining more rapidly than expected.”

He said that the final tests, from the Portland sandstone level, had actually been…

View original post 627 more words