Retreating Greenland glacier is growing again

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Jakobshavn glacier, West Greenland [image credit: Wikipedia]
Without jumping to hasty conclusions, this is an interesting development not predicted by the IPCC’s supposed experts. Natural ocean/climate oscillations are implicated. Against assumptions, rising carbon dioxide levels cannot explain these latest observations.

A new NASA study finds a major Greenland glacier that was one of the fastest shrinking ice and snow masses on Earth is growing again, reports The GWPF.

The scientists were so shocked to find the change, Khazendar said: “At first we didn’t believe it.

“We had pretty much assumed that Jakobshavn would just keep going on as it had over the last 20 years.”

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Superstition’s Fingerprint In Climate Science

Reblogged from RealClimateScience.com:

Our top climate scientists are blaming floods in Nebraska on global warming

Manmade greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, warming the oceans and making the air above them more humid, scientists said. When a storm picks up and eventually spits out that moisture, it can be devastating for people caught below.

“The atmosphere is pretty close to fully saturated, it’s got all the water it can take,” said Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Big storms like the bomb cyclone and Hurricane Harvey, which smacked Houston in 2017 with record downpours, are where the impact of climate change can most clearly be seen, he said, adding that climate change’s fingerprints were all over the recent storm.

“I don’t think it’s a starring role, but it’s a strong supporting role,” said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, a federally-funded office, of climate change’s role in the Midwest floods.

He said the bomb cyclone was carrying vast amounts of moisture from the Pacific up to 1,500 miles (2,400 km) away.

The atmosphere is pretty close to fully saturated, it’s got all the water it can take,” said Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Climate change’s fingerprints are on U.S. Midwest floods: scientists | News | The Mighty 790 KFGO

It has been the coldest February/March on record in Nebraska so far. (Average temperatures will rise a little before the end of the month, and may move this year out of the coldest spot.)

The reason the atmosphere is saturated, is because of the cold air – which can hold less moisture. This is something most science students learn in high school, but apparently our top PhD climate scientists are unaware of it.

Sea surface temperatures are also mostly below normal west of the US.  The claims by the climate scientists have no basis in reality, which is standard practice for their profession.

anomnight.3.21.2019.gif (1174×640)

Nebraska has a long history of floods.

The 1935 Nebraska flood killed more than 100 people and was associated with the world record rainfalls in Texas and Colorado.

03 Jun 1935, Page 11 – Muncie Evening Press at Newspapers.com

03 Jun 1935, Page 1 – Great Falls Tribune at Newspapers.com

On May 31, 1935 Woodward Ranch, Texas set the world record with 22 inches of rain in less than three hours.

Colorado got nearly that much rain a few hours earlier.

Extreme Weather: A Guide & Record Book – Christopher C. Burt – Google Books

1940 Nebraska flood

05 Jun 1940, 1 – Fremont Tribune at Newspapers.com

1941 Nebraska flood.

10 Jun 1941, Page 1 – Lincoln Journal Star at Newspapers.com

1947 Nebraska flood

26 Jun 1947, 1 – Sioux City Journal at Newspapers.com

1950 Nebraska flood.

11 May 1950, 1 – The Columbus Telegram at Newspapers.com

1951 Nebraska flood

15 Jul 1951, Page 62 – The Lincoln Star at Newspapers.com

1962 Nebraska flood.

27 Mar 1962, 1 – Lincoln Journal Star at Newspapers.com

1963 Nebraska flood

27 Jun 1963, Page 10 – Las Vegas Daily Optic at Newspapers.com

1978 Nebraska flood

28 Mar 1978, 6 – The Lincoln Star at Newspapers.com

Similarly, the record floods of 1936 came after the coldest February on record in the US.

20 Mar 1936 – ALL EASTERN AMERICA UNDER FLOOD WATERS 

Climate science and journalism – all lies, all the time.

Planet-Sized Experiments – we’ve already done the 2°C test

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

People often say that we’re heading into the unknown with regards to CO2 and the planet. They say we can’t know, for example, what a 2°C warming will do because we can’t do the experiment. This is seen as important because for unknown reasons, people have battened on to “2°C” as being the scary temperature rise that we’re told we have to avoid at all costs.

But actually, as it turns out, we have already done the experiment. Below I show the Berkeley Earth average surface temperature record for Europe. Europe is a good location to analyze, because some of the longest continuous temperature records are from Europe. In addition, there are a lot of stations in Europe that have been taking record for a long time. This gives us lots of good data.

So without further ado, here’s the record of the average European temperature.

Figure 1. Berkeley Earth average European temperature, 1743 – 2013. Red/yellow line is an 8-year Gaussian average. Horizontal red and blue lines are 2°C apart.

Temperatures were fairly steady until about the year 1890, when they began to rise. Note that this was BEFORE the large modern rise in CO2 … but I digress.

And from 1890 or so to 2013, temperatures in Europe rose by about 2°C. Which of course brings up the very important question …

We’ve done the 2°C experiment … so where are the climate catastrophes?

Seriously, folks, we’re supposed to be seeing all kinds of bad stuff. But none of it has happened. No cities gone underwater. No increase in heat waves or cold waves. No islands sinking into the ocean. No increase in hurricanes. No millions of climate refugees. The tragedies being pushed by the failed serial doomcasters for the last 30 years simply haven’t come to pass.

I mean, go figure … I went to Thermageddon and all I got was this lousy t-shirt …

In fact, here’s the truth about the effects of the warming …

Figure 2. Average annual climate-related (blue line) and non-climate-related (red line) deaths in natural disasters. Data from OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

In just under a century, climate-related deaths, which are deaths from floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, and extreme temperatures, have dropped from just under half a million down to about twenty thousand … and during this same time, temperatures all over the globe have been warming.

So no, folks, there is no climate emergency. Despite children happily skipping class to march in lockstep to the alarmist drumbeat, climate is not the world’s biggest problem, or even in the top ten. Despite the pathetic importunings of “Beta” O’Rourke, this is not World War II redux. Despite Hollywood stars lecturing us as they board their private jets, there are much bigger issues for us to face.

The good news is, the people of the world know that the climate scare is not important. The UN polled almost ten million people as to what issues matter the most to them. The UN did their best to push the climate scare by putting that as the first choice on their ballot … but even with that, climate came in dead last, and by a long margin. Here is what the people of the world actually find important:

Figure 3. Results of the UN “My World” poll. Further analytic data here.

As you can see, there were sixteen categories. People put education, healthcare, and jobs at the top … and way down at the very bottom, “Action taken on climate change” came in at number sixteen.

In summary:

We’ve done the two degree Celsius experiment.

The lack of any climate-related catastrophes indicates that warming is generally either neutral or good for animal and plant life alike.

Climate related deaths are only about a twentieth of what they were a hundred years ago.

The people of the planet generally don’t see climate as an important issue. Fact Check: They are right.

===========================

Here, my gorgeous ex-fiancee and I are wandering on the east side of the Sierra Nevada mountains. We went and looked at Death Valley. It’s a couple hundred feet below sea level, and very, very dry. In the Valley, I saw that there was a temperature station at Stovepipe Wells. So I immediately looked for that essential accessory to any well-maintained temperature station … the air conditioner exhaust. Here you go, you can just see the air conditioner on the right side of this south-looking photo:

But what good is an air conditioner without some good old black heat-absorbing asphalt pavement to balance it out? So of course, they’ve provided that as well … here’s the view looking west. I’m not sure if this station is still in use, but any readings here would certainly be suspect.

Heck, if we’d parked our pickup truck facing outwards in the next stall to the left and revved the engine, we probably could have set a new high temperature record for this date …

Death Valley itself is stunningly stark, with the bones of the earth poking up through the skin …

Ah, dear friends, the world is full of wonders, far too many for any man to see all of them … keep your foot pressed firmly on the accelerator, time is the one thing that none of us have enough of. As Mad Tom o’ Bedlam sang,

With a host of furious fancies, whereof I am commander
With a sword of fire and a steed of air through the universe I wander
By a ghost of rags and shadows, I summoned am to tourney
Ten leagues beyond the wild world’s end … methinks it is no journey.

Today we’re at Boulder Creek, just east of the Sierras by Owens Lake … or Owens Ex-Lake, because all the water that used to fill the lake now waters gardens in LA.

However, the drought is broken in California, and some of the Sierra ski resorts have gotten forty or fifty feet of snow over the winter, so the east slope of the Sierras look like this where we are:

I am put in mind of what the poet said …

Come, my friends,
‘Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.

My very best to each one of you, sail on, sail beyond …

w.



HiFast Note:

Willis’ photos of the Stevenson screen were taken at the Stovepipe Wells Ranger Station (36.608169, -117.144553)

Stovepipe Wells Ranger Station

The USCRN site ISWC1 is about 700m south (36.601914, -117.145068).

California Drought History

Sierra Foothill Commentary

During the last drought, I made about 85 posts on the issue, pointing out the drought history of the region was chaotic, with dry periods and wet periods, with some very long dry periods. In those posts, I supported the need for more dams to catch and store the feeble about of moisture collected during the dry periods, including the Centennial Dam Project.

This drought timeline tells the story of drought in the region;

california_drought_timeline

California is relatively drought-free right now, but if history is an indicator of the future we will have more drought.

california-drought-comparision

H/T to Watts Up With That for links to the Graphics.  

If you are interested in learning more about drought and flooding in the region, I recommend The West Without Water and books by Anthropologist David L. Stuart on the struggle of the Pueblo Peoples to survive in the South West. Our relatively wet period could…

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Greenland’s Glaciers Expanding Again

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

accumulatedsmb

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/#

As I reported last September, Greenland’s ice sheet mass balance had grown at close to record levels for the second year running.

To clarify again, the mass balance calculation accounts for:

1) Snowfall

2) Ice melt

3) Ablation

In other words, it does not include calving.

DMI’s Polar Portal has now published its report for the year. This is the summary:

image

Whilst NW Europe was enjoying a hot summer, Greenland’s was pretty miserable. This dipole is well known, and is sometimes known as the Atlantic see-saw. Often, when Europe enjoys hot weather, Greenland gets the opposite, and vice versa.

Greenland’s last really mild summer was in 2012, which Brits will not have forgotten was when we had record rainfall!

One statement which stands out is whilst glaciers have continued the development seen during the last six years in which they have more or less maintained their…

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Hurricanes & climate change: 21st century projections

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

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Warmer California winters will reduce Sierra Nevada snowpack

Jerry Brown’s myopic view of climate from 2016:

California Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr.:  “California droughts are expected to be more frequent and persistent, as warmer winter temperatures driven by climate change reduce water held in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and result in drier soil conditions. Recognizing these new conditions, the executive order directs permanent changes to use water more wisely and efficiently, and prepare for more frequent, persistent periods of limited supply.”  9 May 2016.

Source via Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20160520060004/https://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=19408

[edit, photo added below from KOLO 8 Reno, 7 Mar 2019]:

No photo description available.

 

China And The Pause

Reblogged from the GWPF:

Dr David Whitehouse, GWPF Science Editor, 08/03/19

Chinese climate scientists: The so-called hiatus in global temperature is illuminating, significant and real.

Chinese climate scientists are clearly off-message. They keep referring to the global warming hiatus which so many scientists and activists – those who shout on twitter and prowl the comment sections of off-colour articles on the subject – know has been trounced and discredited again and again. They clearly ought to have a word with the emerging science powerhouse that is China.

Writing recently in “Science of The Total Environment,” Li and Zha of Nanjing Normal University, say the global hiatus has played a prominent role in their thinking and they see it reflected in China. Using satellite data they found a hiatus in China between 2001-15. They found warming in western and southern China and a 15-year cooling trend in northern China. For China as a whole they estimate that the warming rate is just -0.02°C per decade. They conclude that, “there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or slowdown in China, and (it) implies that greenhouse gas induced warming is suppressed by other natural forcing in the early 21st century.”

There is also Li et al writing in Climate Dynamics who are a little more forceful saying, “since the late 1990s, the global warming has ground to a halt, which has sparked a rising interest among the climate scientists. The hiatus is not only observed in globally average surface air temperature, but also in the China winter air temperature trend, which turns from warming during 1979-1997 to cooling during 1998-2013.” They attribute the effect to the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Gan et al (Lanzhou University and South Dakota State University), reporting in Earth and Space Science say that the hiatus, if not cooling, is seen over the Northern Hemisphere finding that the daily temperature minimum experienced an “obvious” decline in North America during the warming slowdown period. They relate the changes in daily temperature minimum to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

He at al (National Science Review) note that carbon budgets in ecosystems in China are coupled with changes in climate. They point out that in the past decade China has experienced changes in the characteristics of its summer monsoon as well as “decelerated warming.” They point out that in general changes in China’s ecosystems are poorly documented.

Looking at East Asian surface temperatures Xie et al in Climate Dynamics suggest that the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation, operating through its influence on the African-Asian multi-decadal teleconnection pattern, will mean that East Asian surface ait temperatures will remain at their current levels or slightly cooler between 2018 -2034, and will then increase.

Elsewhere in the world Wanatabe et al in Nature Scientific Reports say that the Indian Ocean Dipole – an inter-annual mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean – has intensified with 20th century global warming. However, the data shows a global-warming hiatus between the late-1990s and 2015. They say it is presently unclear how this global warming hiatus, as they put it, will affect regional ocean parameters.

All of these interesting papers come from mainstream journals, and all are food for thought. The so-called hiatus in global temperature is illuminating, significant and real.

Solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume

Climate Etc.

by Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best

A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years.

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Declining Solar Activity

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

BOB HOYE

In the 1990s, solar physicists, Penn and Livingston, called for a long decline in solar activity. This is the case and it is nice to see such work confirmed by events. Solar Cycles # 23 and 24 are the weakest since the early 1900s. The current run of consecutive Spotless Days is out to 33, or 75%, for the year.

The following table shows the record back to the minimum of Solar Cycle # 23 when the count was at 268 days, or 73%, for 2008.

So far this year, the count is out to 33 consecutive days, which is exceptional. So much so, that SILSO keeps a table of such long runs.

clip_image004

Solar Cycle # 24 is expected to reach its minimum by late in this year.

For hundreds of millions of years such changes in solar activity have been associated with changes from warming to cooling. And back again. The long run to the recent peak in activity was the strongest in thousands of years. Despite this, temperatures were not as warm for as long as set during the Medieval Warm Period. The end to that long trend and turn to cooling in the early 1300s was drastic, causing widespread crop failures and famine in Northern Europe and England. A book by William Rosen, “The Third Horseman” covers it thoroughly. The die-off from 1315 to 1320 is estimated at some 10 percent of the population. Deaths of cattle, sheep and horses were severe as well. All due to the turn to cold and unusually wet weather.

The change to what some are calling the Modern Minimum is significant. In geological perspective, it is now a built-in cooling force.

The next chart shows that the satellite record is again approaching the flat-lying trend, which is out to some 20 years. The El Ninos of 1998 and 2016 were distinctive weather- warming events.

clip_image006

NOAA’s Winter Forecast made on October 18th has been wrong on temperature and precipitation. North America has suffered a cold, snowy and lengthy winter, beyond what could be blamed upon the demon “Polar Vortex”.

Over time, diminishing solar activity has been likely to be accompanied by more cosmic rays and more cloud cover. Which would be associated with cooler and snowier winters. And possibly cooler summers, which the Danish Met Institute reported for 2018 and 2017.