Even with Inuit lives at stake, polar bear specialists make unsupported claims

polarbearscience

The standoff between Inuit and polar bear specialists regarding the status of polar bears in Canada is not going to end until someone in authority demands to see the data scientists insist contradict Inuit knowledge.

Macleans to kill a polar bear headline 21 April 2019

An article in Maclean’s Magazine (15 April 2019), entitled “To Kill a Polar Bear”, explores some of the feelings and opinions of folks involved but fails to ask whether the data support the rhetoric advanced by scientists. Author Aaron Hutchins takes the scientists at their word, that seeing more bears than 20 years ago is all because of lack of sea ice. However, from what I’ve seen, he might as well trust a fox in a hen house.

Ian Stirling is quoted by Hutchins insisting that polar bears in Western Hudson Bay continue to suffer from the effects of declining sea ice, without mentioning that ice cover has been essentially static on Hudson Bay…

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Native American Wisdom on Polar bears and Kappiananngittuq

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

By Jim Steele

Native American Wisdom and Kappiananngittuq:  Polar Bears and Bowhead whales

published Pacifica Tribune April 17, 2019

What’s Natural column

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Native American Wisdom and Kappiananngittuq: Part 1

In 2010 Nunavut’s Minister of Environment Daniel Shewchuk wrote, “Inuit hunters have a close relationship with the land and wildlife. They have observed that the overall population of polar bears in Nunavut is not declining as some suggest, but rather is thriving. No known environmental or other factors are currently posing a significant or immediate threat to polar bears overall. Furthermore, Inuit knowledge and science corroborate that the species can and will adapt to changing and severe climatic conditions, as it has done for centuries.”

The Inuit truly practice the concept of “it takes a village”. Hunters sit down in kappiananngittuq and respectfully share their observations of wildlife and their movements. Kappiananngittuq is the Inuit word for a “safe place to discuss”. Based on community discussions, Inuit have steadfastly claimed it is “The Time of the Most Polar Bears”. Overhunting has been one of the world’s greatest threats to wildlife. And the growing number of polar bears is testimony to wise hunting regulations now honored by the Inuit.

In contrast, based on questionable computer models, some western scientists have argued two-thirds of all polar bears will be extinct by the year 2030. Climate scientists like Gavin Schmidt sitting in his New York office, suggested the Inuit are in total denial. Sadly, in climate politics there is no kappiananngittuq where people safely discuss divergent knowledge. If you dare disagree with models of gloom and doom, you are attacked as an ignorant denier.

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A well-fed polar bear


In part 2, I will present abundant scientific evidence supporting Inuit claims that it is the “time of the most polar bears”. But first I present an example of the Inuit’s amazing ability to correctly diagnose changes in Arctic wildlife populations. Kappiananngittuq discussions consistently resulted in accurate conclusions, far superior to western science.

Due to overharvesting during the early 20thcentury, Bowhead whales were undeniably on the brink of extinction. In response, commercial hunting of Bowheads along the Canadian Arctic was wisely banned in 1951. Inuit subsistence hunting continued until 1979 but was later prohibited. After extensive debate, a limited licensed subsistence hunt was eventually renewed in Nunavut in 1996.

When the Inuit first petitioned to hunt the Bowhead in the 1980s, scientists argued the Bowhead population had not yet recovered to the sustainable numbers needed to safely permit subsistence hunting. The Inuit insisted scientists grossly underrepresented the whale’s abundance due to faulty surveys. It is not exactly clear how the Inuit counted, but by compiling their community’s observations, they concluded there were three times more Bowhead than scientific models suggested.

Many non-Inuit were suspicious, insinuating Inuit estimates were a self-serving calculation driven by their desire to hunt more whales. Off-hand comments portrayed Inuit estimates as mere hunches lacking written documentation and verifiable observations. Inuit science was not considered on par with hi-tech calculations.

But scientific surveys frequently suffer from a wide range of biases and inaccuracies. Models are often just the best guesses of a small group of scientists that get translated into numbers and equations. The data that feed their models are often limited by scant observations.

In the 1970s, during the Bowhead’s spring migration, scientists perched on hilltops, or pressure ridges in the ice. They counted whales as they migrated north through the open-water “leads” along the north coast of Alaska. They erroneously assumed that when the winds changed and ice temporarily closed those leads, whales stopped migrating. Only after the winds again shifted and the leads reopened, did scientists continue their count. Based on such survey assumptions, scientists modeled that only 2000-3000 Bowhead whales existed. And such small numbers meant the whales were still endangered.

In contrast Inuit hunters had always ventured much further out on the ice. Based on experience, they argued that when open-water leads closed, the whale migration still continued. The swirling pack ice always generated chaotic but sufficient springtime cracks and leads, providing whales enough opportunities to breathe.

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Bowhead Whale creating breathing hole

Bowheads also break relatively thin ice to make their own breathing holes. Whales were never restricted to large open-water leads along the coast. Thus, Inuit hunters argued the scientists had been blind to the majority of migrating whales. To their credit, western scientists re-designed their surveys to address the Inuit’s criticisms. The Inuit were proven correct, and amazingly had correctly calculated that Bowhead populations were 3 times higher than scientists had estimated. I suggest we all could benefit by debating kappiananngittuq style.


Jim Steele is the retired director of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus and authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism.

Inconvenient stumps

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Climate alarmists tell us that the Earth has never been warmer, and that we can tell by looking at tree rings, treelines, and other proxy indicators of climate.

Climate scientists claim the warmth is unprecedented.

We’ve been told it is warming so fast, we have only 12 years left!

Yet nature seems to not be paying attention to such pronouncements, as this discovery shows.

This photo shows a tree stump of White Spruce that was radiocarbon dated at 5000 years old. It was located 100 km north of the current tree line in extreme Northwest Canada.

The area is now frozen tundra, but it was once warm enough to support significant tree growth like this.

If climate was this warm in the past, how did that happen before we started using the fossil fuels that supposedly made our current climate unprecedentedly warm?

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Anomaly South America

Reblogged from Musings from the Chiefio:

Earlier I looked at a subset of countries globally, comparing their “change of temperature from the average” (anomaly) for a given set of thermometers in a given country as it is found in the Global Historical Climate Network version 3.3 when compared to version 4. Now you might think that since this is “historical” it ought not change. And since it is based on “anomalies”, if you have a couple of different thermometers in the set (as the Warmers constantly insist) it would not cause a change. (After all, if it’s 1 C warmer in your front yard it’s also 1 C warmer in your back yard…) So you would expect that there ought to either be NO change, or any change will be due to the application of changed “adjustments” to the temperatures (that just happen to exactly match ALL global warming found…) But these are the “unadjusted” data sets, so ought not to have any of that.

Yet they are different. Often for what ought to be the SAME thermometer in the same time and place in history. (You can’t go back to 1850 and add a new thermometer in Cuba…)

I’ll be presenting two graphs for each country. One has black spots for the Anomaly in a given year for GHCN v3.3 in that country, and red spots for what is the same country, year, and anomaly process but from GHCN v4. Often they are different (almost always). Sometimes up to whole degrees C. Now if your thermometer selection and processing can change THE SAME PLACE AND TIME in history by 1 C, what are the odds that 1/2 C of “global warming” comes from just that sort of instrument change? I’d rank it at about 100%.

For reference, here’s the climate zones from the Wiki on South America

South America Koppen – Geiger Climate Zones

The Graphs

Since we saw Argentina and Brazil in the earlier posting, I’ll Start with Brazil, then add the countries near it to the north and away from the Andes. Then we’ll travel down the spine of the Andes ending with Chile and Argentina, then finally fill in Paraguay and Uruguay on the south side of Brazil up against Argentina. Ending with the two island clusters of the Falkland islands and South Georgia & Sandwich Islands.

Brazil

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Brazil Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Brazil Anomaly

Cuba

Cuba is included in South America, but personally I’d have accounted for it in with all the other Caribbean islands.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Cuba Difference

Mostly the old data is “cooled” and the recent data given a bit of a “lift”. Looking at the raw anomalies below, it looks like Cuba has some cycles in it, and like it was “way hot” in the long ago past.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Cuba Anomaly

Venezuela

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Venezuela Difference

The past cooled by 1/4 to 3/4 C in a nice general slope. Has the past of Venezuela really cooled?…

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Venezuela Anomaly

French Guiana

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 French Guiana Difference

Looking at the anomalies down below, not much to work with. So we get that tail in the present being changed a lot higher. But hey, what’s a full degree C of “fixing it up” anomaly change when you need to get a global 1/2 C of “warming’ out of stable actual data… But really, what a “dogs breakfast” that is. A “dip” of 1/2 C in the “baseline period” and then an added almost a full C in the most recent common data? What can possibly justify that? Remember, this is supposed to be the same place same times.. and many of the same instruments if not all of them the same.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 French Guiana Anomaly

Guyana

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Guyana Difference

Oh wow. A full degree C of “dip” in the baseline near 1980, then a 2 c “FLYER” negative before 2000, then up to 1 C of “uplift” in the recent tail. Sheesh.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Guyana Anomaly

Suriname

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Suriname Difference

1.5 C of “rise” added recently. Really? WT?… Nice 1/2 C “dip” in the tail of the baseline period.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Suriname Anomaly

Colombia

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Colombia Difference

Then we hit Colombia and it’s just not happening. Looks rather flat and dull. Guess they were too busy with the cocaine trade to give a fig about the UN Climate Graft money… Or maybe CO2 got kinda high and forgot to warm things up… Well, someone got high…

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Colombia Anomaly

Ecuador

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Ecuador Difference

Half a degree down in the baseline, to 3/4 C down, then 1/2 C up recently in the “fixing”. Now that’s someone on board with the agenda!

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Ecuador Anomaly

Peru

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Peru Difference

Actual anomalies (below) not going anywhere… Short record. What to do, what to do… How about dip it 0.4 C in the baseline and lift the near end another 1/2 C?

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Peru Anomaly

Bolivia

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Bolivia Difference

Highly volatile (see below) and not much trend, then the “fix” being all over the place. What a mess. On this we bet the global economy?

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Bolivia Anomaly

Chile

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Chile Difference

Not much really happening below, so what’s our “Go To” thing? Dip the baseilne around the ’50s and bump up the present by 1/4 C to 1/2 C.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Chile Anomaly

Argentina

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Argentina Difference

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Argentina Anomaly

Paraguay

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Paraguay Difference

Just WOW. Drop the WHOLE past by 1/4 C, then pop up 1/5 C to a full 1.5 C in the recent data. Just WOW.

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Paraguay Anomaly

Uruguay

Guess Uruguay is not all that interesting. Not a team players. Only gets about .4 C of dip at the very end of the “baseline period” and can’t get more than 1/4 C of “lift” in the recent data.

Then we once again leave the mainland for two groups of Islands in the Southern Ocean.

The Falkland Islands

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Falkland Islands Difference

Nothing really happening in the Falklands. (In more ways than one). Gee, think a stable station in the middle of the south Atlantic Gyre might mean not much is happening? (Someone will need to fix that in v5… I’d /sarc; it but I’m not sure that’s valid…)

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 Falkland Islands Anomaly

South Georgia and Sandwich Island

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 South Georgia & Sandwich Islands Difference

This one is interesting. Some “High Fliers” in years where the prior data set had no data. How’d they do that? Go back and put data in where none was reported? Overall, another flat island in the ocean. But with mystery fliers. Though they did manage to cool almost the entire history by about 1/3 C, so there’s that…

GHCN v3.3 vs v4 South Georgia & Sandwich Islands Anomaly

Tech Talk

This would basically be a repeat of the tech stuff in the prior posting, so take a look there for example code and the hows / whys / and designs.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/04/09/ghcn-v3-3-vs-v4-selected-country-anomaly-differences

In Conclusion

I’ve scattered some detail comments through the graphs and as I get time to stare at them a bit, if I see something else I’ll add it in comments. You may well see something I’ve not seen, so stare at ’em and ponder…

In general, I’ve noticed some places hardly change at all. Often very minor places like an island somewhere. Larger places look more “manicured” with loss of low going excursions in the data lately. Then there’s the general tendency to cool the past, and put “dips” in the “baseline” period used by GISStemp and Hadley (1950 to 1990). Is it really the case that all those places had just those same needs to cool the past, dip the baseline and juice up the recent highs while clipping recent lows? What physicality could possible account for that? What systematic failure of thermometer tech Globally can account for those “errors”?

To me it looks like deliberately cooking the books.

Why Attenborough’s Walrus Claims Are Fake.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

 Our Planet has showcased hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes

Our Planet has showcased hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/8800576/netflix-david-attenborough-our-planet-walrus-heartbreaking/

Last week, the new Netflix series, Our Planet, was launched with great fanfare. Narrated by David Attenborough, however, one segment made headlines around the world, showcasing hundreds of walruses falling off a 260ft cliff to a slow, agonising death in heartbreaking scenes.

Narrating the disturbing scene in the second episode, Attenborough began:

But the story quickly began to unravel.

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Inconvenient stumps

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

Climate alarmists tell us that the Earth has never been warmer, and that we can tell by looking at tree rings, treelines, and other proxy indicators of climate.

Climate scientists claim the warmth is unprecedented.

We’ve been told it is warming so fast, we have only 12 years left!

Yet nature seems to not be paying attention to such pronouncements, as this discovery shows.

This photo shows a tree stump of White Spruce that was radiocarbon dated at 5000 years old. It was located 100 km north of the current tree line in extreme Northwest Canada.

The area is now frozen tundra, but it was once warm enough to support significant tree growth like this.

If climate was this warm in the past, how did that happen before we started using the fossil fuels that supposedly made our current climate unprecedentedly warm?

Attenborough’s tragedy porn of walruses plunging to their deaths because of climate change is contrived nonsense

polarbearscience

A recent Netflix ‘Our Planet’ program with David Attenborough delivering a disturbing message of doom about walruses falling off a cliff to their deaths because of climate change is contrived nonsense on par with the bogus National Geographic starving polar bear video of 2017.  The walruses shown in this Netflix film were almost certainly driven over the cliff by polar bears during a well-publicized incident in 2017, not because they were “confused by a combination of shrinking ice cover and their own poor eyesight“.

Walrus plunging cliff_The Sun headline 5 April 2019There areno precise details about the time and place of the incident shown in the ‘Our Planet’ film (see here or here), except that these were Pacific walrus “in the Russian Arctic” according to The Times (5 April 2019): “David Attenborough’s Our Planet: Walruses plunging to deaths become new symbol of climate change“.

However, even with only that…

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OK in the 80s but not now: ‘seeing more polar bears means there are more bears’

polarbearscience

Wait for it, it will come: backlash from polar bear scientists for a statement by an Inuk bear safety guide in Labrador, reported by the CBC yesterday. The guide said there are more polar bears now than there were 25 years ago based on the fact that he is seeing more bears and that more bears mean more trouble with bears, including attacks on people. As I point out in my new book, The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened, only in the 1980s did biologists admit that seeing more bears meant there were actually more bears.

polar-bear-black-tickle_Edwin Clark submitted to CBC no date This bear visited Black Tickle in Labrador a few years back. Edwin Clark photo.

It has not been OK anywhere else in the world over the last few years to suggest that seeing more bears meant more bears, whether you were Inuk or not – whether describing a subpopulation that’s officially…

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Nudging a Climate Illiterate

Excellent post.

Science Matters

Mark Hendrickson writes at The Epoch Times March 28, 2019 Open Letter to a Journalist About His Paper’s Position on Climate ChangeMark patiently lays out information and context for someone to think more deeply about superficial opinions on global warming/climate change. Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.

Commentary

Mark Trumbull, Staff Reporter
The Christian Science Monitor
Boston, MA 02115

Dear Mr. Trumbull,

Last month, in your introductory remarks to The Christian Science Monitor Daily online news stories, you addressed the issue of the Monitor’s coverage of climate change. Your challenge is how to report when you and your Monitor colleagues believe that “human emissions of CO2 are triggering dangerous climatic conditions” while some of your readers do not.

You wrote, “Part of good journalism is to seek out a range of viewpoints rather than just present a story through one lens. But a corollary journalistic responsibility…

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Blowing the whistle on the climate of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef

Reblogged from Watts Up With That:

A brief overview of on-going climate research.

by Dr. Bill Johnston

Background

Australian taxpayers spend inordinate amounts of money each year on “saving” the Great Barrier Reef and to keep the bucket brimming with cash there is little wonder that the myriad of organizations involved want careful control over the spin and the people who do the work. The dust-up between Peter Ridd and James Cook University (JCU) is a case-in-point.

The Reef is indeed wonderful, big, can be seen from space; its worth this much or that depending on how its counted and of-course the bigger the better and therefore whatever they spend is an ‘investment for future generations’ … And JCU defends “Peter’s right to make statements in his area of academic expertise …”; except of course doubts he may have about other researchers’ research (otherwise known as the failing-to-act-in-a-collegial-way-and-in-the- academic-spirit-of-the-institution gotya). It does not help that with 15 coauthors, the Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies Professor Terry Hughes makes the ambit claim that “Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat …to the long term future of these iconic ecosystems” in the prestigious journal Nature (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2); especially if it isn’t true.

The Number-1 problem faced by the Reef

The biggest problem faced by the Reef in the 21st century is the feeding-frenzy resulting from too much money being flung at too many institutions all [peddling] their own exaggerated versions of catastrophe so they can demand more money and thus keep the gravy train puffing along. The players have habits to support – boards, over-paid vice chancellors and professors; administrators of this and that, travel budgets, meetings, multiple media-teams etc. all of which are proportionally paid-for from the Australian Research Council’s cash-for-science bucket. For every dollar that actually lands on the Reef, three or four dollars or more is likely to be swallowed by such overheads. Then there are the well-organised and well-funded climate drum-beaters like WWF, Nature Australia, GetUp!, Greenpeace, the Climate Council and the Australian Youth Climate Coalition doom-merchants, who prey on vulnerable children who are integral to the success of the enterprise.

It follows that if 50% of the big-spenders were forced to find something more useful to do, the amount of research done on the Reef could double or treble; alternatively, more could be spent on more pressing issues somewhere else. The question is, do the boards of the organizations, consisting mostly of lawyers, engineers, lobbyists, accountants and mates ever undertake due-diligence on their ‘brand’ or on the research they supposedly oversee?

As cause de jour for everything, climate change is looking very wobbly. Careful analysis cross-referenced by documents, plans and aerial photographs held by the National Library and National Archives of Australia shows that the Bureau of Meteorology has questions to answer about how data have been gamed to warm the climate. It is not feasible they can’t remember locations of the original Aeradio weather stations at Cairns, Townsville and Rockhampton and when they moved and changed. Rather than reciting untrue claims about climate warming to The Conversation, ABC and the Fairfax press, Blair Trewin et al. should front-up to taxpayers and explain how badly and why they got it so wrong. For their part, from CSIRO down, the good ol’ mates and fellows on flag-waving boards and in science institutes and academies have failed dismally to uphold their glossy governance statements. It is clear that scientists like Peter Ridd should be free to do their work without the burden of implied support for climate change, for which there is no evidence in any Australian weather station dataset. It’s also valid for scientists of Peter’s standing and repute to call out peers doing poor or shifty work especially where the hierarchy is more protective of their brand-and-gravy than they are concerned about excellence in science.

Behind the closed doors of political correctness and vested interests, Australian science has lost its way and it’s a hideous situation that taxpayers are constantly misinformed and manipulated by organizations they once held in high-regard. Despite the Bureau’s best efforts, including deliberate bias (https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/guest/aust/bom-audit/johnston-bill/2018/bourke/back-of-bourke-v1.3_10.pdf), there is no evidence the climate has changed or warmed or that climatic extremes are increasing. Except in fluffy-duck-science stories based on modelling, which are mainly perpetuated by competing doomsayers and institutional catastrophists via the left wing press; neither the Reef nor the Murray-Darling Basin are or have been under threat from climate warming.

Temperature across Australia are being reported as getting warmer because in November 1996 the Bureau changed to networked automatic weather stations, and over the ensuing 2 decades sacked their trusty observers and reduced the size of instrument shelters (Stevenson screens) from 230 to 60-litres. Without even considering site biases (obvious in time-lapse Google Earth Pro satellite images) unattended small screens beside dusty tracks and at airports are biased-high from accumulated grime. Biased data that changes the colour of summer from red to purple looks scary, but doesn’t change the climate.

Pushed from the top by CSIRO and the Australian Research Council’s money bucket and from the bottom by green groups; climate change is a billion-dollar scam the likes of which Australians have never experienced before. Chairman David Thodey who heads-up the CSIRO brand has no relevant scientific credentials (https://www.csiro.au/en/About/Leadership-governance/Minister-and-Board/Members), yet via silo-structures it is Thodey and his Board that oversees the Bureau and signs-off on “The State of the Climate”; “Climate change: Science and Solutions for Australia”; “Climate projections”; … “Climate Adaptation” ….. It is a problem that individual weather station data don’t support their rhetoric. Unlike Peter Ridd, Thodey didn’t have the spine to push back. He and his Board have allowed science to be hijacked for political purposes and the Great Barrier Reef gravy train is the product of that failure. Further, it’s well known that like JCU; within the Bureau and CSIRO, jobs are on the line for speaking-out.

In the name of ‘climate-justice and ‘climate-action’ and with a general election looming, it is time to put climate fallacies to bed so Australians can get on doing and making things that build wealth and contribute to the country’s future; and hopefully, so wannabe-politicians co-opted by vested interests like WWF don’t run amok and make decisions that affect everyone for all the wrong reasons.

Exemplified by Peter Ridd vs. JCU and for the sake of our nation’s future, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison should commit to an open inquiry into climate change including the role of the Bureau of Meteorology in creating trends and changes that don’t exist.


Here’s the backstory, complete with photos and diagrams:

GBR climate backstory_1.1