Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather

sunshine hours

Cold Kills

Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.

Around 7.71% of all deaths were caused by non-optimal temperatures, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from around 3% in Thailand, Brazil, and Sweden to about 11% in China, Italy, and Japan. Cold was responsible for the majority of these deaths (7.29% of all deaths), while just 0.42% of all deaths were attributable to heat.

The study also found that extreme temperatures were responsible for less than 1% of all deaths, while mildly sub-optimal temperatures accounted for around 7% of all deaths — with most (6.66% of all deaths) related to moderate cold.

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2018 Update: Best Climate Model INMCM5

Science Matters

A previous analysis Temperatures According to Climate Models showed that only one of 42 CMIP5 models was close to hindcasting past temperature fluctuations. That model was INMCM4, which also projected an unalarming 1.4C warming to the end of the century, in contrast to the other models programmed for future warming five times the past.

In a recent comment thread, someone asked what has been done recently with that model, given that it appears to be “best of breed.” So I went looking and this post summarizes further work to produce a new, hopefully improved version by the modelers at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

A previous post a year ago went into the details of improvements made in producing the latest iteration INMCM5 for entry into the CMIP6 project.  That text is reprinted below.  Now we have some initial and promising results Simulation of…

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The Hidden Cost Of Wind Power – Booker

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Booker on the cost of wind power today:

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In the past year or two there has been an extraordinary attempt by ministers, the renewables industry and green pressure groups to convince us that electricity from wind and the sun is now cheaper than that from fossil fuels. This issue has come up yet again with the refusal of the BBC to uphold a complaint from the Global Warming Policy Foundation about remarks made by Lord Deben (aka John Gummer), chairman of the Climate Change Committee, in an interview by John Humphrys on Today on Radio 4.

Although the BBC upheld one part of the complaint, it rejected another against Deben’s claim that onshore wind is now “the cheapest form of producing electricity”. It came up with Government figures to show that onshore wind is now marginally cheaper than any other power source.

What the BBC and the…

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October Arctic Ice Catching Up

Science Matters

CA2018274to290.gifOctober Days in Nunavut

Previous posts described how the Northwest Passage was treacherously laden with ice this year.  The image above shows how the freezing proceeded in this region over the last 16 days.  Oct. 1 the CAA ice extent (Canadian Arctic Archipelago) was 609k km2, then waffled back and forth until growing sharply the last four days to 786k km2.  On the right, Baffin Bay also doubled in that period up to 150k km2.  On the left and bottom, Beaufort Sea added 324k km2 up to 943k km2, nearly 90% of the maximum last March.

Arctic2018290

The graph shows MASIE reporting ice extents totaling 5.96M km2 yesterday,  700k km2 below the 11 year average (2007 to 2017 inclusive).  Note how 2018 started on average, then went fairly flat the first week or so, and lately is adding extent at the same rate as the average.  Presently, 2018 is about five…

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September 2018 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

This post provides updates of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through September 2018 and HADCRUT4 and NOAA NCEI (formerly NOAA NCDC) through August 2018—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through September 2018. It also includes a few model-data comparisons.

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Ocean SSTs Slightly Cooler

Science Matters

globpop_countriesThe best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.  More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end.

The Current Context

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through September 2018

Hadsst092018

A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016, joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016.  2018 started with slow warming after…

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