Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 342 – 2018


Ocean SSTs Tepid in November

Science Matters

globpopThe best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.  More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end.

The Current Context

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through November 2018.


A global cooling pattern is seen clearly in the Tropics since its peak in 2016, joined by NH and SH cycling downward since 2016.  2018 started with slow warming after…

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November Cooling by Land, or Cooling by Sea?

Science Matters


With apologies to Paul Revere, this post is on the lookout for cooler weather with an eye on both the Land and the Sea.  UAH has updated their tlt (temperatures in lower troposphere) dataset for November.   Previously I have done posts on their reading of ocean air temps as a prelude to updated records from HADSST3. This month I will add a separate graph of land air temps because the comparisons and contrasts are interesting as we contemplate possible cooling in coming months and years.

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually…

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Space weather may predict future climates

Tallbloke's Talkshop

While this may all seem a bit vague, it looks like a step in the right direction.

Historic space weather could help researchers better predict future events and atmospheric cycles, a new study in Space Weather reports.

This finding comes from scientists at the University of Warwick, who tracked space weather in solar cycles for the last half century, reports The Space Reporter.

That then revealed a repeatable pattern in the way space weather activity alters over each solar cycle.

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WMO Reasoning behind Two Sets of “Normals” a.k.a. Two Periods of Base Years for Anomalies

Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations

Most of us are familiar with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-recommended 30-year period for “normals”, which are also used as base years against which anomalies are calculated. Most, but not all, climate-related data are referenced to 30-year periods. Presently the “climatological standard normals” period is 1981-2010. These “climatological standard normals” are updated every ten years after we pass another year ending in a zero.  That is, the next period for “climatological standard normals” will be 1991-2020, so the shift to new “climatological standard normals” will take place in a few years. 

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Snowy owls spotted in Ohio as arctic birds migrate south

From WLWT:

Snowy owls have been spotted in Ohio as they migrate south, a relatively rare site in the Buckeye State.

The Ohio Department of Natural Resources posted a photo of the Arctic-nesting bird this week, captured by a wildlife photographer in Madison County, Ohio.

Few birds generate as much excitement as these massive snowy owls.

Not too many make it down to Ohio, which is nearly 2,000 miles south of the nearest nesting areas, wildlife official said, and numbers vary from year to year.

Some winters, only one or two are found; peak years might bring up to a dozen or more reports.

In 2018, a seemingly record numbers of snowy owls appeared in Ohio. Typically, sighting of the beautiful birds tend to be in northern parts of the state.

But in 2018, the owls were spotted across the Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky areas – one, famously perched at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park.

So what drove so many snowy owls to Ohio? Naturalists believe that the large movement of snowy owls was tied to a successful nesting year in the Arctic.

Sightings in Ohio are very uncommon but naturalists say they are not unheard of in southern portions of Canada during the winter months.

The arctic birds are typically nomadic in summer months, nesting around large populations of small rodents. In winter, they take on a wide variety of prey, including geese and other birds.

Inuit and Western science are far apart on polar bear issues in Nunavut


Interesting summary and informed perspective from Nunavut News that’s worth a read on the issue of polar bear management in Nuvavut (29 November 2018: “Inuit, Western science far apart on polar bear issues”).


“Nirlungayuk said the predictions made by Western science for the polar bear populations in western Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay were, in a word, wrong.

He said they need to look closely at those predictions and determine how they got them wrong.

“From a scientific perspective, I would challenge the scientific community to take another look at both western Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay to explain why the predictions that were being made back in the early 2000s up to 2018 were so wrong.

“A statement that came from Environment Canada was that the bears will keep on declining because of climate change even without hunting and that hasn’t happened.”

 Read the rest here.

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Bjorn Lomborg Shreds Media/Scientists Over US Climate Report

sunshine hours

Bjorn Lomborg shreds scientists and media.

“Actually, the assessment, and science, tell a different story. “Drought statistics over the entire contiguous US have declined,” the report finds, reminding us that “the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event.”

On flooding, the assessment accepts the IPCC’s finding, which “did not attribute changes in flooding to anthropogenic [human] influence nor report detectable changes in flooding magnitude, duration or frequency.”

Even more dramatic was CNN’s headline, screaming that “climate change will shrink [US] economy” by 10 percent, a figure also repeated on The New York Times front page.

Actually, the UN’s climate scenarios envision US GDP per capita will more than triple by the end of this century, so this 10 percent reduction would come from an economy 300 percent larger than it is today. A slightly smaller bonanza, in other words.

But the 10 percent…

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The US National Climate Assessment Report They Did Not Want You To See!


By Paul Homewood


The BBC inevitably made a lot of propaganda out of the latest US National Climate Assessment report, which I have already shot holes in.

But below is the report the climate scientists did not want to publish:

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