The 300th Anniversary of the Great Colonial Snowcover of 1717

Watts Up With That?

The recent nor’easter (blizzard to some) here in New England reminded me that I better get moving on a post here about the 300th anniversary of what was likely the deepest snow cover in these parts in the past 400 years or so, and probably a lot longer. I suspect that, like fish stories, this tale has grown taller over the decades. Also, New England forests have made a comeback, and I think several references refer to drifted over houses built near the edge of pastures. Still, it’s clear that claims about the present weather becoming increasingly extreme don’t look back to events like 1717, more recent events in the 1930s, or “The Storm of the Century” in March 1993, which devastated Cuba and the eastern US.

There are many contemporary accounts of the 1716/1717 winter, but they all seem to derive from a complex ancestry of earlier…

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Solar Update March 2017 – still slumping

Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by David Archibald

Our divination of solar parameters is aimed to elucidating two things – the length of Solar Cycle 24 and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25.


Figure 1: F10.7 Flux from 2014

The F10.7 flux was exhibiting high volatility up to the beginning of 2015 after which it entered a disciplined decline in activity to late 2016. Now it is not far above the activity floor of 64 with three years of the solar cycle to go.


Figure 2: Solar Cycle 24 progression relative to Solar Cycles 19 to 23

For the last couple of years Solar Cycle 24 has been bumping along the lower bound of activity for the cycles for which we have F10.7 data, but with much lower volatility. From here it looks like Solar Cycle 24 will have a long, flat tail until minimum.


Figure 3: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 to 2017

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The social cost of carbon regulations hurt the poor, and ignore benefits

Watts Up With That?

Anti-fossil fuel SCC relies on garbage models, ignores carbon benefits and hurts the poor


The Social Cost of Carbon is a key foundation for numerous Obama-era energy policies, regulations and programs. Climate alarm activists insist the SCC is rooted in solid science and economics, but it is actually little more than Garbage In-Garbage Out forecasting – and worse.

The SCC assumes fossil-fuel-driven carbon dioxide emissions are causing dangerous manmade climate change, and blames U.S. emissions for every conceivable climate-related cost worldwide. But it fails even to mention, much less analyze, the tremendous and obvious benefits of using oil, gas and coal to power modern civilization – or the undeniable benefits of more CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere helping crops and habitats grow faster and better. Finally, the SCC totally ignores the social, economic, employment and environmental costs of theregulations imposed in the name of saving the planet by…

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Stokes and the “somehow” theory of ocean heat

Watts Up With That?

A Correction – And Much More of the Answer


Guest essay by Mike Jonas

I think this post is a big deal. It’s not quite the answer to everything but, if I’ve got it right, it solves a lot of the climate riddle. It also shows that CO2’s contribution to late 20th century global warming was very minor. So here’s a request: please can the best brains on WUWT check it all very carefully – a serious online peer-review. If I’ve stuffed up, I want to know that right away, so please get a critical comment in asap. Most of the relevant data is in the spreadsheet absorptioncalcs_upper (.xlsx see also Appendix B).

1. A Correction from Nick Stokes

What seems like a long time ago, when I saw Nick Stokes’ comment on my How Climate Works – Part 1 post, I thought it looked significant and I should…

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Ocean Surface Temps–How Low Will They Go?

Science Matters


We have seen lots of claims about the temperature records for 2016 and 2015 proving dangerous man made warming.  At least one senator stated that in a confirmation hearing.  Now that HadSST3 data is complete through February 2017, let’s see how obvious is the ocean’s governing of global average temperatures.

The best context for understanding these last two years comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature the last two years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows the last two years of SST…

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Oil – Where did it come from?

Excellent article.

Watts Up With That?

quote-gold-is-where-you-find-it-according-to-an-old-adage-but-judging-from-the-record-of-our-wallace-pratt-61-44-06Wallace Everette Pratt (1885–1981)

Guest post by David Middleton


I am a petroleum geologist/geophysicist with about 36 years of experience in oil & gas exploration mostly in the Gulf of Mexico.   In light of Andy May’s recent post, Oil – Will we run out?, I thought I might post an essay on oil formation.

Over the past six years, I have been fortunate to have the opportunity to write guest posts for Watts Up With That thanks to Anthony Watts.  Many of my posts have been about issues related to oil production and each of these posts usually triggers comments from Abiogenic Oil advocates.  So, this post’s main thrust will be to explain why the Abiogenic Oil hypothesis is not widely accepted and why we think that the original source of crude oil is organic matter.

It’s possible that oil forms in the mantle all the time. The chemical equations…

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California Drought Report #83: California Drought History

Sierra Foothill Commentary

In seeking more information on the potential for more drought following the current floods, I ran across some additional drought information in this study:

Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions from Tree Rings, February 7, 2014, David M. Meko, Connie A. Woodhouse, and Ramzi Touchan

The reconstructed flows in the Klamath, Sacramento, and San Joaquin basins allow an assessment of the instrumental period of record, in terms of drought duration and severity, in a long-term context, The longest run of below median flow years extends to 21 consecutive years in the Klamath River reconstruction, 10 years in the Sacramento and 13 years in the San Joaquin Two intervals of 10 years are indicated in the Sacramento: late 1200s and in the 1920s-1930s. In the San Joaquin, the 13-yr run occurs in the late 1400s. The 21-yr run in the Klamath occurs in the mid- to late 1600s. Numerous periods of low…

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