Problem polar bears in Churchill at this date show 2017 less than 2016 and 2015

polarbearscience

Comparing Churchill problem bear statisticsover a few years provides some critical perspective: this year, the bears are causing much fewer problems.

This 2nd week in September is no exception, being the 9th week ashore in all cases: 2017 (4-10 September, where I think “total number of polar bear occurrence reports to date” should be 64, not 53, see week 7 reporthere), 2016 (5-11 September), 2015 (7-13 September), where there were about 1/2 the number of bears in “jail” this year compared to the last two years (i. e., 6 vs. 11 and 12) and slightly more than 1/2 the number of occurrence reports in 2017 than in 2016 and 2015 (64 vs. 107 and 99):

2017 week 9 Sept 4-11 may be typo2016-sept-5-11_week-9.jpg2015 Sept 7-13_at Sept 14

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Former NASA scientist disses @NASAGISS – says it’s a “monument to bad science”

Watts Up With That?

Climate scientist Dr. Duane Thresher:

Start with defunding NASA GISS where this whole global warming nonsense started. It was started by James Hansen, formerly head of NASA GISS and considered the father of global warming. It was continued by Gavin Schmidt, current head of NASA GISS, anointed by Hansen, and leading climate change warrior scientist/spokesperson. I know from working there for 7 years that NASA GISS has almost been defunded several times in its life anyway. It’s a small group over a restaurant (Tom’s Restaurant from the TV comedy Seinfeld!) in New York City, nowhere near any other major NASA facility. Just the dedicated data link to the nearest NASA facility, GSFC in Maryland, is a big expense. GISS is the Goddard Institute for SPACE Studies. If you don’t need a rocket to get to it, it’s not space.”

Thresher rips former colleagues:

Physicists and mathematicians who couldn’t make it…

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Winton Capital Sets Up Climate Change Prediction Market

Watts Up With That?

From The GWPF

Date: 12/09/17
|Lindsay Fortado, Financial Times

One of Europe’s largest hedge funds is looking to move into the gambling industry in the UK, as it sets up a new venue where players can bet on the effects of climate change. The project is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are.

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The new “climate prediction market” is the brainchild of Winton Capital, founded by David Harding, and is aimed at finding a market consensus on the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global temperature rises in the future.

The not-for-profit project, which is being funded out of Winton’s philanthropic budget, is hoping to tempt climate scientists to put their money where their models are, and to provide a clear benchmark of the academic consensus at a time of intense interest in man-made climate change.

News of the project comes as…

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Climate Change Australia – Tim Flannery’s Latest Prediction Blown Away

PA Pundits - International

By Andrew Bolt ~

Professional climate alarmist Tim Flannery  first became famous for his dud predictions after predicting cities such as Brisbane and Sydney were likely to run out of water very quicklybecause of man-made global warming.

For instance, in 2007 he predicted:

So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems…

But it was another dud Flannery prediction. Back came the flooding rains, filling dams– some to overflowing.

Now a new dud Flannery prediction has emerged.

Two years ago Flannery could not resist trying to exploit another weather event to preach his warmist faith -and once again did it on the ABC, no doubt knowing it would not question him on his dodgy record:

Vanuatu has a long road of recovery ahead after the category-five [Cyclone Pan] struck the country on Friday night, killing 11 people and displacing…

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Adjusting Measurements to Match the Models – Part 3: Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures

Executive Summary:

The bottom lines that emerge from all this are:

1. The only published temperature time series that are not distorted by adjustments and which can therefore be considered reasonably reliable are the UAH TLT series and the SST series after about 1950. (The various radiosonde series, which go back to 1958, also appear to be generally reliable, and more use could be made of them.)

2. Climate models show too much air temperature warming at the surface and in the troposphere. They show probably about the right amount of sea surface warming after 1950 but probably too little before. Overall the models show that greenhouse gases have had considerably less impact on temperatures than AGW theory says they should have had.

Read the whole post here:  http://euanmearns.com/adjusting-measurements-to-match-the-models-part-3-lower-troposphere-satellite-temperatures/

Low-level radiation exposure less harmful to health than other modern lifestyle risks

Watts Up With That?

From the “I thought sure Fukashima was going to kill me” department

Oxford Martin restatement finds that risks from radiation exposure are extensively studied and small relative to smoking, obesity and air pollution

UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

Human populations have always been exposed to ionizing radiation, and more so in modern life due to its use in medicine, industry and the armed forces. Whilst the risks to human health from medium and high-level radiation are relatively well-understood, the risks at lower levels are less clear. Mixed messages about the safety of low doses of radiation from different sources have created confusion for the public and for policy makers.

In a new study, published today in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, a team of experts from the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford have compiled the evidence on health risks from low-level ionizing radiation, adding a new nuance…

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What you need to know and are not told about hurricanes

Watts Up With That?

By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website

Summary: Millions of words were expended reporting about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but too little about the science connecting them to climate change. Here are the details, contrasted with the propaganda barrage of those seeking to exploit these disasters for political gain. Let’s listen to these scientists so we can better prepare for what is coming. Failure to do so risks eventual disaster.

NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005 NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005.

(1) A politically useful catastrophe: the Left speaks up

Tweet-1

The record-setting twelve-year long hurricane “drought” (no major hurricane landfalls on the US) was just weather. But the Left immediately boldly and confidently declared Harvey and Irma to be caused (or worsened) by anthropogenic climate change. Some of these screeds are mostly rational, just exaggerated or imbalanced. Such as “Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like” by Eric…

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El Niño Winter On the Way

Sierra Foothill Commentary

According to Joe Bastardi at Westherbell we are going to have an El Niño Winter Here is his snow forecast:

El Ninio Winter

Note that the southern half of California will be relatively dry, with the upper part near normal. Nevada County is in the dividing line, we could be normal or dry.

Here is the bigger picture of El Niño Winters from the West Without Water.The drought will return, save our water.

West With Out Water page 54

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Are Doomsday Scenarios Best Seen As Failed Predictions Or Political Detonators?

Watts Up With That?

Date: 16/09/17  | Tor H Aase, The Geographical Journal of Nepal

The so-called ‘Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation’ predicted an environmental collapse by the end of last millennium, threatening the life of millions of people. Fortunately, the all-encompassing crisis did not materialize.

The article shows that the ‘Theory’ failed to take into account the vast ecological variation in Himalaya and thus generalized its contentions to the whole mountain range on the basis of deficient data. But, on the other hand, what would have happened if the prediction had not been made? A doomsday scenario like the Theory of Himalayan Degradation can, from the perspective of positivist hypothesis testing, be viewed a posteriori as a failed prediction; but from another perspective it can be seen as an alarm clock that triggered a series of policy initiatives and new knowledge.

Introduction

From time to time, doomsday scenarios enter global academic and political…

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What you need to know & are not told about hurricanes

Fabius Maximus website

Summary: Millions of words were expended reporting about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but too little about the science connecting them to climate change. Here are the details, contrasted with the propaganda barrage of those seeking to exploit these disasters for political gain. Let’s listen to these scientists so we can better prepare for what is coming. Failure to do so risks eventual disaster.

NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005 NASA photo of Hurricane Katrina on 28 August 2005.

(1)  A politically useful catastrophe: the Left speaks

Tweet-1

The record-setting twelve-year long hurricane “drought” (no major hurricane landfalls on the US) was just weather. But the Left immediately boldly and confidently declared Harvey and Irma to be caused (or worsened) by anthropogenic climate change. Some of these screeds are mostly rational, just exaggerated or imbalanced. Such as “Harvey Is What Climate Change Looks Like” by Eric Holthaus at Politico — “It’s time to open our…

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