New NOAA forecast suggests current El Niño will fade fast, and be replaced by a strong cooling La Niña this year

Excellent post and comments by Allan MacRae:



I am saying it is not a “Pause”, it is a Plateau, and naturally-caused global cooling will start soon.

Regards to all, Allan

This post on SC24 is interesting:

Question: When will global cooling start?

In 2002 we wrote that global cooling would start by 2020 to 2030.

We now say global cooling will start before 2020, probably by 2017.

[Definition: The commencement of global cooling is deemed to start when the Lower Tropospheric (LT) temperature anomaly as measured by UAH satellite data starts to decline below the +0.2C anomaly and the trend then declines further.]

Bragging rights to whoever gets it right.
Allan MacRae February 22, 2016 at 2:35 am
Post Script:

I hope to be wrong about global cooling, because humanity suffers greatly in a cooling world. The current Excess Winter Mortality Rate equals about 100,000 deaths per year in the USA, up to 50,000 in the UK and several million worldwide, even in warm climates. There is NO significant Excess Summer Mortality Rate.

A few more thoughts to consider:

Observations and Conclusions:

1. Temperature, among other factors, drives atmospheric CO2 much more than CO2 drives temperature. The rate of change dCO2/dt is closely correlated with temperature and thus atmospheric CO2 LAGS temperature by ~9 months in the modern data record

2. CO2 also lags temperature by ~~800 years in the ice core record, on a longer time scale.

3. Atmospheric CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.

4. CO2 is the feedstock for carbon-based life on Earth, and Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are clearly CO2-deficient. CO2 abatement and sequestration schemes are nonsense.

5. Based on the evidence, Earth’s climate is insensitive to increased atmospheric CO2 – there is no global warming crisis.

6. Recent global warming was natural and irregularly cyclical – the next climate phase following the ~20 year pause will probably be global cooling, starting by ~2020 or sooner.

7. Adaptation is clearly the best approach to deal with the moderate global warming and cooling experienced in recent centuries.

8. Cool and cold weather kills many more people than warm or hot weather, even in warm climates. There are about 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths every year in the USA and about 10,000 in Canada.

9. Green energy schemes have needlessly driven up energy costs, reduced electrical grid reliability and contributed to increased winter mortality, which especially targets the elderly and the poor.

10. Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of modern society. When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die. That is the tragic legacy of false global warming alarmism.

Allan MacRae, Calgary, June 12, 2015

Watts Up With That?

Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. directs me to this new forecast product from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). If it holds, it suggests a big cooling event ahead.

NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain

LIM forecasts of SST anomalies based on November-December-January 2015-2016 initial conditions. Contour interval is 0.3 degrees C. For numerical values click here.



He adds:

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