NOAA — Straight Talk on Sea Level Rise

Watts Up With That?

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen

North_Atlantic_RSLR_TrendsThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has some rather useful features on its web site.

One of these is the Tides and Currents which is part of its Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services.  Having spent most of the current century living at sea,  with my wife and occasionally a son or our daughter and granddaughter, on our venerable sailing catamaran, the Golden Dawn,   cruising the eastern coast of the United States, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola, and the Spanish, U.S., and British Virgin Islands, I have made extensive use of its features.

For our purposes, the most used features were the predictions of the size and timing of tides in various places which often determined our sailing schedule to allow us to leave or arrive at various states of tides, often necessary to clear the bar to a harbor entrance…

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The Changing Arctic–Nov 1922


By Paul Homewood

In 1922, the US Weather Bureau, now part of NOAA knew that the Arctic was undergoing a “radical change of climate”, and was “not recognizable” from the climate of 1868 to 1917.

In November that year, the Weather Bureau published this chapter in their Monthly Weather Review:



They must have had proper scientists in those days.


In 1922, the Monthly Weather Reviews were published by the US Weather Bureau, which became part of the newly formed NOAA in 1970.

The opening sentences have been corrected to reflect this fact.

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The Source Of The Heat

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Over at Dr. Judith Curry’s always excellent blog, she has a post headlined by a question, viz:

What are the main sources of heat that account for the incremental rise in temperature on Earth?

Let me start by saying that this is a horribly phrased question. Consider a parallel question:

What are the main sources of heat that account for the incremental rise in my body surface temperature when I put on a jacket?

I’m sure you can see the problem with Dr. Judith’s question—temperatures can rise without ANY new sources of heat or ANY change in existing sources of heat.

For example, regarding the climate system, every year there is more and more oil that goes into the ocean. This oil floats on the surface in a monomolecular layer, and it reduces both conduction and evaporation. As a result, the oceans end up slightly…

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More Davis Strait polar bears onshore in the last two days


Four bears were photographed outside of Red Bay, Southern Labrador on Thursday 8 March and a bear was spotted ashore in NE Newfoundland overnight on Wednesday.

Red Bay Labrador polar-bears 8 March 2018_Vicki Hancock photo_CBC 9 March 2018

CBC News reported this morning (9 March 2018, 4 polar bears spotted trekking through Labrador):

“A group of four polar bears has been photographed just outside Red Bay, Labrador.

Vicki Hancock spotted the bears, which she described as all looking like adult bears, on Thursday and posted the photos on Facebook.”

These four are unlikely to be adult bears traveling together – it is probable they are big two year old cubs, a triplet litter that has beaten the low odds of all three surviving past the first year. All look to be in excellent condition.

VOCM reported this additional detail:

“Vicki Hancock posted some photos of the bears on Facebook. She says the bears were last spotted on Saddle Island, and are still…

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Iceland Warmer Than Rome & South of France!!


By Paul Homewood

I came across this page in HH Lamb’s Climate, History and the Modern World yesterday.

Don’t worry about the details on the map, as they are too small to read in the book anyway. It is his description at the bottom that makes for interesting reading.


Note how temperatures in Iceland were higher than Rome and the south of France.

What he has has identified is precisely the same sort of meteorological set up, which has recently wafted up mild Atlantic air into the Arctic, and cold continental air to the UK.

Nowadays, climate scientists try to persuade us that there is something unprecedented and alarming about this, and that it must have something to do with “melting Arctic ice”.

Lamb would have called it weather!

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Study: Interactions between smoke and clouds have unexpected cooling effect

Watts Up With That?

Atomspheric physicists have found that the way wildfire smoke from Africa interacts with clouds over the Atlantic Ocean results in a net cooling effect, which is contrary to previous understanding and has implications for global climate models.

A view from the window of a P-3 aircraft over the Atlantic Ocean. A layer of smoke is visible over patchy clouds.

CREDIT NASA/Kirk Knobelspiesse

Clouds play a prominent role in moderating Earth’s climate, but their role is still poorly understood. Generally, clouds cool the Earth by reflecting incoming sunlight back out into space. Reducing the clouds’ reflectivity–with a layer of pollution, for example–reduces the cooling effect. However, new research inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesby physicists at UMBC and collaborators adds a surprising twist to this model.

Every fall, fires race across central and southern Africa, creating so much smoke that it’s clearly visible from space. Wind sweeps the…

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Surprise! Study says some glaciers actually shrank during the last ice age

Watts Up With That?

The simple story says that during the last ice age, temperatures were colder and ice sheets expanded around the planet. That may hold true for most of Europe and North America, but new research from the University of Washington tells a different story in the high-altitude, desert climates of Mongolia.

The Gobi-Altai mountain range in western Mongolia is in a very dry region but ice can accumulate on mountaintops, such as Sutai Mountain, the tallest peak in the range. In the picture, friends of Jigjidsurengiin Batbaatar descend this mountain after helping to install a weather station.

CREDIT Jigjidsurengiin Batbaatar/University of Washington

The recent paper inQuaternary Science Reviewsis the first to date ancient glaciers in the high mountains of Mongolia’s Gobi Desert. It compares them with glacial records from nearby mountains to reveal how glaciers behave in extreme climates.

On some of the Gobi mountain ranges included in the…

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Winter polar bear sea ice habitat by early March 2018 varied little from 2006 or 2017


Here’s a polar bear habitat update for early March: some folks are wringing their handsover the relatively extent of ice this season but ice maps show that as far as polar bear habitat is concerned, conditions are not materially different this year from what they were in 2006 or 2017. There is still plenty of late winter sea ice for polar bears needing a platform from which to hunt Arctic seals, which in some areaswill have already begun giving birth to their fat furry pups (harp seals first, other species later).

The MASIE map for 5 March 2018 (Day 64) shows ice extent at 14.5 mkm2:

masie_all_zoom_4km 2018 March 5
Here is the map for 2006 on the same date (5 March 2006, Day 64, also 14.5 mkm2), with no evidence that this level of late winter sea ice had any negative impact on polar bear health or surivival (one…

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Remember when we were told “Penguins Don’t Migrate, they’re dying!” ? – never mind

Watts Up With That?

WUWT readers may remember this story from last year, where Chris Turney, leader of the ill fated “ship of fools” Spirit of Mawson expedition that go stuck in Antarctic sea ice said: “Penguins Don’t Migrate, they’re dying!” and of course blamed the dreaded “climate change” as the reason. Of course three days later, Discover Magazine ran an article that suggested Turney was full of Penguin Poop.

Well, seems there’s a surplus of Penguins now, in a place nobody thought to look, there’s an extra 1.5 million Penguins. From Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.

h/t to WUWT reader Lewis P. Buckingham.

Previously Unknown “Supercolony” of Adelie Penguins Discovered in Antarctica

For the past 40 years, the total number of Adélie Penguins, one of the most common on the Antarctic Peninsula, has been steadily declining—or so biologists have thought. A new study led by researchers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic…

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