CO2 Fluxes, Sources and Sinks

Science Matters

Note the size of the human emissions next to the red arrow. (Units are in GT)

On a recent post Obsessed with Human CO2, I pointed out how small is the amount of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels compared to natural sources. Human emissions fall within the error ranges around the estimates from land, oceans and biosphere. This post looks deeper into the issue and our current state of knowledge about attribution of the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

Alarming Claims by IPCC Followers

From Chapter 6 Working Group 1 AR5 with my bolds.

With a very high level of confidence, the increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and those arising from land use change are the dominant cause of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. About half of the emissions remained in the atmosphere(240 ± 10 PgC) since 1750. The rest was removed from…

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Claim: groundwater depletion releases ‘significant’ carbon dioxide

Watts Up With That?

From the AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION and the “giant sucking sound” department:

Groundwater depletion could be significant source of atmospheric carbon dioxide

WASHINGTON D.C. — Humans may be adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by using groundwater faster than it is replenished, according to new research. This process, known as groundwater depletion, releases a significant amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that has until now been overlooked by scientists in calculating carbon sources, according to the new study.

The study’s authors estimate groundwater depletion in the United States could be responsible for releasing 1.7 million metric tons (3.8 billion pounds) of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year.

Based on these figures, groundwater depletion should rank among the top 20 sources of carbon emissions documented by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This would mean the carbon dioxide emitted…

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New map of Antarctic geothermal heat suggests Steig & Mann 2009 weren’t measuring ‘global warming’

Watts Up With That?

This is quite interesting. Remember the claim in on the front cover of Nature in 2009 by Steig and Mann that Antarctica was warming, thanks to that “special Mannian PCA math sauce” that was applied to air temperature data to smear surface temperature trends over the entire continent? It was dashed by climate skeptics who wrote a paper. It was accepted for publication and disproved (in my opinion) by a team of credible skeptics that wrote a counter-paper. But, there’s an interesting twist thanks to new and surprising data; Steig and Mann may have captured surface air temperature trends in the exact same areas that have been identified as geothermal hot spots.

First the press release, from the British Antarctic Survey on Nov 13th, 2017:


New Antarctic heat map reveals sub-ice hotspots

An international team of scientists, led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS), has produced a new…

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Here’s The Inconvenient Truth Behind MIT’s Study Linking Hurricane Harvey To Global Warming

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

It was only a matter of time before some junk scientist blamed Hurricane Harvey on global warming.

It is probably no surprise either that it comes from Kerry Emmanuel.

Fortunately Michael Bastach has been quick to tear it to pieces:

image

A new study is making waves in the media, claiming to finally address the question of man-made global warming’s role in Hurricane Harvey’s record-setting rainfall.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor Kerry Emanuel, a renowned hurricane expert, and his colleagues published their findings on Monday, claiming global warming increased the of risk Hurricane Harvey-level rainfall in southeastern Texas grew since the last century.

There’s one huge caveat: Emanuel didn’t actually study Hurricane Harvey itself.

Instead, Emanuel’s study is based on thousands of climate model runs to find out the odds a storm will bring the amount of rainfall Hurricane Harvey did when it made landfall in late…

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Skepticism ‘requires high cognitive ability, strong motivation to be rational’

Watts Up With That?

Stephan Lewandowsky tried to make climate skeptics look stupid (by not even bothering to sample them, but impugning their beliefs as irrational from out of population samples), this study turns the tables on his execrable work and suggests that climate skeptics are both analytical and rational.

Highlights

  • Analytic thinking is not sufficient to promote skepticism toward various unfounded beliefs.
  • Analytic thinking and valuing epistemic rationality interactively predict skepticism.
  • Cognitive ability, rather than analytic cognitive style, seems to account for these findings.

From the UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT CHICAGO

The moon landing and global warming are hoaxes. The U.S. government had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. A UFO crashed in Roswell, New Mexico.

Is skepticism toward these kinds of unfounded beliefs just a matter of cognitive ability? Not according to new research by a University of Illinois at Chicago social psychologist.

In an article published online and in the February 2018…

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Study: climate change accelerates growth in trees, especially urban ones

Watts Up With That?

From the TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH (TUM) and the “cities have greater CO2 and greater warmth” department, comes this verification of Liebigs Law of the Minimum and a follow on to a story we covered on the same subject a few years back.

International study on the impact of climate change on tree growth

Trees in metropolitan areas have been growing faster than trees in rural areas worldwide since the 1960s. This has been confirmed for the first time by a study on the impact of the urban heat island effect on tree growth headed by the Technical University of Munich (TUM). The analysis conducted by the international research team also shows that the growth of urban trees has already been exposed to changing climatic conditions for a long period of time, which is only just beginning to happen for trees in rural areas.

“While the effects of climate change…

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W Hudson Bay freeze-up one of earliest since 1979, not “closer to average”

polarbearscience

Tundra Buggy Cam_10 Nov 2017_bear headed offshore pmWestern Hudson Bay polar bears have been leaving shore for the rapidly thickening sea ice since at least 8 November (bear above was heading out 10 Nov.). However, Polar Bears International chose not to mention the unusually earlyfreeze-up until the week-long (5-11 November) doomsday bombardment they call “Polar Bear Week” was almost over.

It’s worse than that: two days earlier, PBI’s activist spokesperson Steven Amstrup apparently told the Sierra Club (“People Show Up for Polar Bear Week, But the Ice Hasn’t Yet”; 8 November 2017) that “the bears are still waiting on shore for that ice to freeze” even though ice development had been well on its way for days at that point. As if freeze-up on 10 November came as a big surprise to him, with no warning whatsoever.

Apparently, they didn’t want their naive and gullible supporters to know at the beginning…

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Something else the climate scientists missed: outgassing due to continental drift

Watts Up With That?

From GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

When continents break it gets warm on Earth 

Rift zones released large amounts of CO2 from depth, which influenced global climate change

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere determines whether the Earth is in greenhouse or ice age state. Before humans began to have an impact on the amount of CO2 in the air, it depended solely on the interplay of geological and biological processes, the global carbon cycle. A recent study, headed by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, shows that the break-up of continents – also known as rifting – contributed significantly to higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

The East African Rift System is currently the largest in the world. Yet, the global rift network 130 and 50 million years ago was more than 5 times longer. CREDIT Brune, NASA WorldWind.

The carbon distribution on…

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NOAA: La Niña is officially back

Watts Up With That?

November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back!

Author:  Emily Becker

Well, it’s November, and the CPC/IRI ENSO forecast is declaring the presence of La Niña conditions! I could just link to my November 2016 post and head home for the day… but that would be no fun! There’s about a 65-75% chance that La Niña conditions will continue at least through the winter. As we head into our fifth “double dip” La Niña (an unofficial term for when neutral conditions briefly prevail in between La Niña winters) in the historical record, let’s dig into what we talk about when we talk about La Niña.

October 2017 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Graphic by climate.gov; data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab.

A quick flashback

If you recall, last month there were several signs of the presence of La Niña conditions. East-central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were…

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NOAA’s USCRN Revisited – no significant warming in the USA in 12 years

Watts Up With That?

Back in 2014, Anthony put up a post called “NOAA shows ‘the pause’ in the U.S. surface temperature record over nearly a decade“. In it, he discussed the record of the US Climate Reference Network (USCRN). I can’t better Anthony’s description of the USCRN, so I’m stealing it to use here:

This data is from state-of-the-art ultra-reliable triple redundant weather stations placed on pristine environments. As a result, these temperature data need none of the adjustments that plague the older surface temperature networks, such as USHCN and GHCN, which have been heavily adjusted to attempt corrections for a wide variety of biases. Using NOAA’s own USCRN data, which eliminates all of the squabbles over the accuracy of and the adjustment of temperature data, we can get a clear plot of pristine surface data.

Here’s a typical USCRN station

USCRN Photo

So … what does the USCRN show in 2017? Well, about…

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