In an attempt to prove climate change creates more severe weather, scientists resort to ‘p-hacking’

And this is just another reason why I will, after 35 years, end my membership in the AMS.

Watts Up With That?

From the “If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.- Ernest Rutherford” department.

From the American Meteorological Society via press release:


AMS TO RELEASE REPORT EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2016

New research links notable weather and climate events to human influence

The American Meteorological Society is releasing the strongest evidence yet that humanity’s long-term release of greenhouse gases has altered recent extreme weather and climate events. In the new collection of peer-reviewed papers analyzing the link between extremes in 2016 and climate change, scientists identified three events that would not have been possible without human-caused changes in the climate.

The linkages are made in a newly released report—Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective, a supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This collection of studies from 116 scientists analyzes 21 different events in 2016, from U.S. snowstorms and South African drought to…

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Is climate change the culprit causing California’s wildfires?

Climate Etc.

by Larry Kummer

We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications.

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NOAA’s Arctic report card released at #AGU17

Watts Up With That?

Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades

Despite relatively cool summer temperatures, observations in 2017 continue to indicate that the Arctic environmental system has reached a ‘new normal’, characterized by long-term losses in the extent and thickness of the sea ice cover, the extent and duration of the winter snow cover and the mass of ice in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, and warming sea surface and permafrost temperatures.

Highlights

  • The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2017 is the 2nd warmest since 1900; however, cooler spring and summer temperatures contributed to a rebound in snow cover in the Eurasian Arctic, slower summer sea ice loss, and below-average melt extent for the Greenland ice sheet.
  • The sea ice cover continues to be relatively young and thin with older, thicker ice comprising only 21% of the ice cover in…

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New mechanism for El Nino enhanced storm systems

Watts Up With That?

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

New mechanism to explain how El Niño influences East Asian and WN Pacific climate

Western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC, or referred to as Philippine Sea anomalous anticyclone) is the most important anomalous circulation pattern connecting El Niño and East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon.

WNPAC begins from the El Niño mature winter to the following summer and thus is one of the most long-lasting anomalous circulation patterns over the entire tropical climate system.

Researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and University of Hawaii proposed a new mechanism to explain the maintenance of WNPAC. The mechanism was named as “anomalous moist enthalpy advection mechanism”. The research team applied this mechanism to explain why WNPAC forms in the late fall of El Niño developing phase.

Schematic of the anomalous moist enthalpy advection mechanism. Warm SSTAs…

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“Why did climate scientists emit 30,000 tonnes of C02 this weekend?”

Watts Up With That?

Guest rebuttal by David Middleton

Q. Why did climate scientists emit 30,000 tonnes of CO2 this weekend? 

A. To get to New Orleans to attend the AGU’s Fall Meeting.

From the No-fly-climate-science Guy…

Grauniad

This weekend, 25,000 Earth, Sun, and planetary scientists from across the US and abroad flew to New Orleans for the annual American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting. These scientists study the impact global warming is having on Earth. Unfortunately, their air travel to and from the meeting will contribute to that warming by emitting around 30,000 tonnes of CO2.

As an Earth scientist and AGU member myself, I know the importance of their work. Still, there’s something wrong with this picture. As scientists, our work informs us – with dreadful clarity and urgency – that burning fossil fuel is destroying the life support systems on our planet. There’s already more than enough science to know we need to…

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Malthus Redux

Watts Up With That?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I see that there’s another neo-Malthusian trying to convince us that global starvation and food riots are just around the corner. This time it’s David Archibald right here on WUWT. Anthony had posted a graph showing gains in various human indicators, viz:

120917_1449_Dohumanshar8.png

But David disagrees, showing various looks at wheat production.

Now, back in 2010, I wrote a post called “I Am So Tired of Malthus” … and I am. For those not born before 1800, a bit of history is in order. Thomas Robert Malthus was an English cleric who made a famous claim in 1798. His claim was that population increases geometrically, doubling every 25 years. But the food supply only increases arithmetically. If you are a fan of original documents as I am, you can find his claim here. In it he says;

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical…

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Study: finds a solar amplification mechanism by which solar activity & cosmic rays control climate

Watts Up With That?

The HockeySchtick writes: A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds another potential solar amplification mechanism mediated by galactic cosmic rays [GCRs] (and distinct from Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory of climate). The author demonstrates:

  • Solar modulation of GCR [Galactic Cosmic Rays] is translated down to the Earth climate.
  • The mediator of solar influence are energetic particles.
  • GCR impacts the O3 [ozone] budget in the lower stratosphere.
  • O3 influences the temperature and humidity near tropopause, and greenhouse effect.
  • Effectiveness of this mechanism depends on geomagnetic field intensity.

“In this paper we show that bi-decadal variability of solar magnetic field, modulating the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at the outer boundary of heliosphere, could be easily tracked down to the Earth’s surface. The mediator of this influence is the lower stratospheric ozone, while the mechanism of signal translation consists of: (i) GCR impact on the lower stratospheric…

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Oceans Cool Post Nino

Science Matters

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through November 2017.

After a steep drop in September, October temps bumped upward in response.  The rise was led by anomaly increases of about 0.06 in both the Tropics and SH, compared to drops of about 0.20 the previous month. NH was virtually the same as September. Global average anomaly changed as much as the Tropics and SH, but remained lower than the three previous Octobers.

Now in November, the downward trend has resumed. As will be shown in the analysis below, 0.4C has been the average global anomaly since 1995.

A longer view of SSTs

The graph below  is noisy, but the density is needed to see…

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Don’t Bank On Solar Power In Winter!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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Wait till the Health & Safety Stasi see this!

The renewable lobby would like you to believe that solar power is an important part of our future energy strategy.

But they don’t tell you just how little power is produced during winter months, at the time when demand is at its peak.

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Coal And Gas Working Flat Out To Keep UK Grid Going On Coldest Night Of Year

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

It’s probably going to be the coldest night of the year, and the grid is working nearly flat out.

At 18.30, coal is providing 9.88 GW and is running at full capacity. CCGT is providing nearly half of our power, and is again at nearly full capacity.

There are apparently outages at Sizewell, Heysham and Hartlepool nuclear plants, leaving a shortfall for nuclear.

Altogether, coal, gas and nuclear are providing 80% of the UK’s power.

So much for renewable energy!

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