Tic Toc, the ENSO clock, the origins of natural variability in climate.


Let me introduce the actors in this play.

Chilean High 20-40S. Latitude, 240-290E Longitude. Maritime Continent 0-10S. Latitude, 120-180 Longitude. Aleutian Low 45-60N. Latitude 180-210 E Longitude. The blue line in the graph registers surface pressure in the region of the Aleutian Low. The orange line traces the difference in surface pressure between the Chilean High and the Maritime continent that is a name for the thousands of islands and the surrounding waters where low pressure prevails to the north of the Australian continent.

The difference in sea level pressure between Tahiti and Darwin is the basis of the Southern Oscillation Index. This is a good way of monitoring the movement of the centre of convection between Indonesia and the eastern Pacific Ocean. But this is really a local phenomenon that plays out along the equator. The bigger picture involves the atmospheric pressure differential that governs the rate of mixing…

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US Heat and Drought Advisory June

Science Matters

Climatists are raising alarms about the rising temperatures and water shortages as evidence of impending doom (it’s summer and that time of year again).  So some contextual information is suitable.

First, a comparison of recent US June forecasts for temperatures.

NOAA US temp 2019 2021And then for the same years, precipitation forecasts.

NOAA US rain 2019 2021

Finally, a reminder of how unrelated CO2 is to all of this.


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What Solstice Teaches Us About Climate Change

Science Matters

From Previous Post When Is It Warming?

On June 21, 2015 E.M. Smith made an intriguing comment on the occasion of Summer Solstice (NH) and Winter Solstice (SH):

“This is the time when the sun stops the apparent drift in the sky toward one pole, reverses, and heads toward the other. For about 2 more months, temperatures lag this change of trend. That is the total heat storage capacity of the planet. Heat is not stored beyond that point and there can not be any persistent warming as long as winter brings a return to cold.

I’d actually assert that there are only two measurements needed to show the existence or absence of global warming. Highs in the hottest month must get hotter and lows in the coldest month must get warmer. BOTH must happen, and no other months matter as they are just transitional.

I’m also pretty sure that…

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Polar bear habitat update and the progress of breakup on Hudson Bay


At mid-month, there is still an abundance of thick first year ice over much of Hudson Bay, suggesting that – yet again – this will not be an early breakup year for Western Hudson Bay polar bears. The early breakup years in the past (like 2010) that generated all kinds of panic amongst polar bear specialists have not developed into ever-continuing declining trend (Lunn et al. 2016) or another abrupt step-change like there was in 1998/99 (Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017).

In the last few years conditions have been more like they were in the 1980s than the prophesied catastrophe we were promised. I don’t see a ‘tipping point’ for Hudson Bay; do you see a tipping point?

The more light green areas of thinner ice present, as there was in 2010 (below), the earlier breakup is apt to be:

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Ocean circulation is key to understanding uncertainties in climate change predictions

Tallbloke's Talkshop

AMOC_circ A portion of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [image credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @ Wikipedia] Widely differing climate models are supposed to be a reliable guide to the future? Clearly not. Here the uncertainty gets investigated, and pinned on a phenomenon that was recently claimed by Mann et al not to exist. Of course all these models make the assumption that carbon dioxide at a tiny 0.04% of the atmosphere is a key variable of concern, despite all the other variability in the climate system that they have to wrestle with.
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Thirty state-of-the-art IPCC-climate models predict dramatically different climates for the Northern Hemisphere, especially Europe, says Phys.org.

An analysis of the range of responses now reveals that the differences are mostly down to the individual model’s simulations of changes to the North Atlantic ocean currents and not only—as normally assumed—atmospheric changes.

The work…

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The sun’s clock: New calculations support and expand planetary hypothesis

Tallbloke's Talkshop

solar-systemThe Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) research laboratory has been looking at some of the Talkshop-featured PRP papers, in particular those by Ian Wilson and Jan-Erik Solheim, plus others by names familiar to many Talkshoppers (Sharp, McCracken, Abreu, Scafetta, McIntosh etc.). It likes what it finds, describing Ian Wilson’s 2013 PRP paper, from which they cite his 11.07 and 193-year solar-planetary periods, as ‘highly instructive and recommendable’ (available via the PRP link above, or the one at the top of the Talkshop home page). This is all something of a contrast to the original publishers, who washed their hands of all the PRP papers under pressure from the IPCC and/or its influential supporters. We may not agree entirely with all their interpretations of the data, but their approach is refreshing.
H/T Lori
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Solar physicists around the world have long been searching for satisfactory explanations for the sun’s many…

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Solar Cycles Chaotic

Science Matters


A recent study published at Science Daily The sun’s clock by Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendor Excerpts in italics with my bolds

Not only the 11-year cycle, but also all other periodic solar activity fluctuations can be clocked by planetary attractive forces. With new model calculations, they are proposing a comprehensive explanation of known sun cycles for the first time. They also reveal the longest fluctuations in activity over thousands of years as a chaotic process.

Not only the very concise 11-year cycle, but also all other periodic solar activity fluctuations can be clocked by planetary attractive forces. This is the conclusion drawn by Dr. Frank Stefani and his colleagues from the Institute of Fluid Dynamics at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) and from the Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics in Perm, Russia. With new model calculations, they are proposing a comprehensive explanation of all important known sun cycles for the first time…

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The linkage between cloud cover, surface pressure and temperature


For the albedo data in this presentation I am indebted to Zoe Phin at. https://phzoe.com/2021/06/01/on-albedo. As per usual the temperature data comes from: https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Atmospheric albedo is due to particles that reflect visible wave lengths in the spectrum of light emitted by the Sun. This reduces the light that reaches the surface of the planet. Reflection in the atmosphere is due to cloud, and my gut feeling is that the strongest variability will be in the cloud that is in the form of multi branching crystals of ice that create a large surface area in relation to their mass. With a lapse rate of 6.5°C per kilometer, the elevation required to form ice cloud is no more than 3 km over the bulk of the planet and 5 km at the equator. Much ice cloud is seen to be stratified due to localized cooling at a high altitude. With 90%…

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