Sea Ice Extent (Global Antarctic and Arctic) – Day 260 – 2019

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Global Warming Theory and the Tests It Fails

Science Matters

Many people commenting both for and against reducing emissions from burning fossil fuels assume it has been proven that rising GHGs including CO2 cause higher atmospheric temperatures.  That premise has been tested and found wanting, as this post will describe.  First below is a summary of Global Warming Theory as presented in the scientific literature.  Then follows discussion of several unsuccessful attempts to find evidence of the hypothetical effects from GHGs in the relevant datasets.  Concluding is the alternative theory of climate change deriving from solar and oceanic fluctuations.

Scientific Theory of  Global Warming

The theory is well described in an article by Kristian (okulaer) prefacing his analysis of  “AGW warming” fingerprints in the CERES satellite data.  How the CERES EBAF Ed4 data disconfirms “AGW” in 3 different ways  by okulaer November 11, 2018. Excerpts below with my bolds.  Kristian provides more detailed discussion at his blog (title in red…

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Polar bear at a walrus haulout with cliffs in Russia: Netflix scenario all over again?

polarbearscience

In the news this morning is a report out of Russia that a team from WWF and a Russian documentary film crew were approached from the top of the cliff by a polar bear – at what looks suspiciously like the steepest part of the same Chukotka cliff that the infamous Netflix ‘Our Planet’ walrus video was filmed in 2017. The Netflix crew insisted that no polar bears were around when the walrus deaths occurred, despite strong evidence to the contrary (including a polar bear shown in the final seconds of the film!)

WWF and RT journalist fend off polar bear as they film walrus in Russia_13 Sept 2019 headline

Is the cliff above the same one we saw last year as walrus fell to a gruesome death on the rocks below, falsely blamed on lack of sea ice? It is mid-September, the same time of year as the 2017 walrus footage was filmed by the joint Netflix/WWF crew – and surprise, surprise, it looks like WWF…

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These starving polar bears falsely blamed on climate change have scared kids to death

polarbearscience

These four images of thin or emaciated polar bears falsely blamed on climate change have scared kids like Greta Thunburg to death: the four white lies that scarred a generation.

Starving polar bear composite_11 Sept 2019

If you see kids marching with signs like the one below – from a protest earlier this year in Montreal – you know they have seen the white lies that have been spread online. Note the poster starving bear below compared to the real-life on from 2015 above.

Polar bear endangered plackard at Kids Global Strike Montreal March 2019 CBC

Here I summarize the truth about all four of these starving polar bear images that have been used since 2009 to emotionally manipulate the public (especially young girls), into getting on board the climate change band wagon. Rational people have seen through the rhetoric and come to realize that climate change is virtually never the cause of starvation. However, some poor kids have been scared to death by these images and…

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A philospher’s reflections on AGW denial

Climate Etc.

by Dr. Paul Viminitz

Of the things I care least about, AGW is near the bottom. But because, as George W. Bush put it, either you’re with us or you’re against them, I think I’d rather be interestingly wrong than politically correct. Accordingly I rehearse what I take to be the case for AGW denial, masquerading – so as to continue to get dinner invitations – as tongue in cheek.

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N. Atlantic Weak August 2019 Pulse

Science Matters

RAPID Array measuring North Atlantic SSTs.

For the last few years, observers have been speculating about when the North Atlantic will start the next phase shift from warm to cold. Given the way 2018 went and 2019 is following, this may be the onset.  First some background.

. Source: Energy and Education Canada

An example is this report in May 2015 The Atlantic is entering a cool phase that will change the world’s weather by Gerald McCarthy and Evan Haigh of the RAPID Atlantic monitoring project. Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

This is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the transition between its positive and negative phases can be very rapid. For example, Atlantic temperatures declined by 0.1ºC per decade from the 1940s to the 1970s. By comparison, global surface warming is estimated at 0.5ºC per century – a rate twice as slow.

In many parts…

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Early Arctic Ice Minimum for 2019

Science Matters

The image shows Arctic ice thinning at the edges in the last 12 days up until day 249, when it appears to stabilize.  This would be an earlier minimum than average but comparable to some other years, including 2018.

The melting season in August and September up to yesterday shows 2019 below average but appearing to consolidate in the last few days.

Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 547k km2 below the 12 year average, having been 807k km2 in deficit just 7 days ago. The pace in recent days has flattened in comparison to the average, and is now matching where 2007 bottomed out. Another surprise is SII showing much more (~300k km2) ice extent than MASIE, and an even earlier bottom on day 247 compared to 249 for MASIE.  Note also that MASIE 2018 daily minimum was day 252.

It is also the case that most…

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