Guest essay by Michel de Rougemont
Without questioning the observed global warming or the emissions to the atmosphere of infrared-absorbing gases, three central issues remain without properly quantified responses, without which no other climate policy than that of a gradual adaptation can be justified: the sensitivity of the climate to human contributions, the disadvantages and the benefits for mankind resulting from a generally warmer climate, and the foreseeable evolution of the climate in consequence of unpredictable changes in human activity. To date, no instrumental observations made in our climate system can disentangle anthropogenic effects and natural variations.
We are left with conjectures and other speculation, both in the recent past and for the future. For this, climatologists develop models with which they can test their hypotheses. But these models are obviously overheating.
To verify their validity, the climate changes must be hindcasted (rebuilt a posteriori). It is then possible…
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