Lively commentary interchange between Dr. Svalgaard and Javier.
Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 CE
Abstract
Solar total and spectral irradiance are estimated from 850 to 1610 by regressing cosmogenic irradiance indices against the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record after 1610. The new estimates differ from those recommended for use in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) in the magnitude of multidecadal irradiance changes, spectral distribution of the changes, and amplitude and phasing of the 11‐year activity cycle. The new estimates suggest that total solar irradiance increased 0.036 ± 0.009% from the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715) to the Medieval Maximum (1100 to 1250), compared with 0.068% from the Maunder Minimum to the Modern Maximum (1950–2009). PMIP4’s corresponding increases are 0.026% and 0.055%, respectively. Multidecadal irradiance changes in the new estimates are comparable in magnitude to the PMIP4 recommendations in the ultraviolet spectrum (100–400 nm) but somewhat larger at visible (400–700 nm) and near‐infrared (700–1,000 nm) wavelengths; the…
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