Gregory et al 2019: Does climate feedback really vary in AOGCM historical simulations?

Climate Audit

A guest post by Nic Lewis


The recent open-access paper Gregory et al 2019 “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” discusses, inter alia, the use of regression to estimate historical climate feedback. As I wrote in a previous article, Gregory et al. consider a regression in the form R = α T, where T is the change in global-mean surface temperature with respect to an unperturbed (i.e. preindustrial) equilibrium and R is the radiative response of the climate system to the change in T, however caused; α is thus the applicable climate feedback parameter for that cause. The corresponding effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) is then F2xCO2/α  where F2xCO2 is the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

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