By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
You may recall all sorts of ridiculous claims about the effect of global warming on Hurricane Florence, when it hit in 2018.
The attribution study below was typical, claiming that rainfall was 50% more than it would have been without climate change, and that it was bigger and longer lasting to boot:
Naturally such claims were widely reported in the media.
Lo and behold, a year and a half later, exactly the same authors have now published their full study:
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaaw9253.full
As it turns out, according to their modelling, rainfall was only 3.8% greater because of global warming, and allowing for error margins may actually have been less! And instead of being 80km in diameter larger, it was only 1 to 2%.
In other words, statistically global warming made no difference at all to Hurricane Florence.
Roger Pielke Jr is scathing about this…
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