March 2021 Arctic Ice Persists

Science Matters

March Arctic ice 2007 to 2021

Previous posts showed 2021 Arctic Ice fell short of breaking the 15M km2 ceiling mid March due to a February Polar Vortex disruption.  As we shall see below, another smaller PV disruption is now occurring accelerating the normal spring melting season.  The graph above shows that the March monthly average has varied little since 2007, typically around the SII average of 14.7 M km2.  Of course there are regional differences as described later on.

Dr. Judah Cohen at AER provides an image of how this latest PV disruption appears:

gfs_animation_010hpa_20210322_20210407

The High pressure areas were forecast to warm over the Pacific Arctic basins, and extending over to the European side, while the cold Low area is presently extending down into North America, bringing some snow on April 1 in Montreal (no joke).  The effect on Arctic Ice is shown in the animation below:

ArcticMarch2021 080 to 090

Over the last 10 days, Okhotsk upper left…

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