The first version of this post had an error in Figure 1. It has been fixed along with the associated text (7/5/2021).
By Andy May
The IPCC claims, in their AR5 report, that ECS, the long-term temperature change due to doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration or the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity,” likely lies between 1.5° and 4.5°C, and they provide no best estimate (IPCC, 2013, p. 85). But their average model computed ECS is 3.2°C/2xCO2. Here, “°C/2xCO2” is the temperature change due to a doubling of CO2. They also claim that it is extremely unlikely to be less than 1°C. ECS takes a long time, hundreds of years, to reach, so it is unlikely to be observed or measured in nature. A more appropriate measure of climate sensitivity is TCR, or the transient climate response, or sensitivity. TCR can be seen less than 100…
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