By Paul Homewood
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/02/05/met-office-update-there-is-no-update/
Time to take a closer look at the new Met Office decadal forecast of global temperatures. (By decadal, the Met Office mean five years, apparently!)
Tallbloke handily updated the Met Office forecast from January 2017 with actual temperatures since (see above chart), in order to see how good their forecasting prowess actually was.
As you can see, it was pretty crap in reality!
For the period 2017-21, they predicted an anomaly range between 0.42 and 0.89C.
By stark contrast, the actual anomaly last year was 0.30C, way below the predictions.
It is also worth highlighting that even the retrospective predictions (that is retrospectively modelling past temperatures using known variables) were at the high end of the bands till the mid 1990s, and since have been trundling along the bottom with the exception of the record El Nino of 2015/16.
It is even more noticeable that the…
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